Melco Resorts (MLCO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: $288M EBITDA, Buybacks and Macau Outlook

Key Takeaways

• Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: MLCO) reported group-wide adjusted property EBITDA of approximately $288 million for Q3 2026, or $298 million after adjusting for VIP hold.
• Unfavorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Macau reduced property EBITDA by approximately $14 million. Favorable VIP win rates added about $2 million each in Manila and Sri Lanka.
• Macau daily operating expenses declined to approximately $3.2 million, including House Advantage, coming in below the company’s previous guidance.
• Liquidity totaled approximately $2 billion at September 30, 2026, including $887 million of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.
• Melco repurchased approximately 33.1 million ADSs for $160 million between July 1 and November 3. Total 2026 repurchases reached 47.1 million ADSs for approximately $236 million.
• Management maintained deleveraging as its top free-cash-flow priority. A dividend could potentially resume toward the end of 2027, although timing will depend partly on share repurchase opportunities.

Key Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

Macau remained highly competitive, while management described recent demand as a “soft pocket” rather than a permanent structural change. Lawrence Ho said the Macau market was down 10% in October, citing weaker Chinese consumption and other possible pressures. Melco nevertheless outperformed the broader Macau market during the month following changes to its sales force and customer acquisition strategy in August and September.

The company is tightening customer reinvestment and introducing a new player club with guardrails intended to protect margins. Management emphasized that it does not plan to pursue market share through uneconomic promotional spending if demand remains soft.

City of Dreams Manila generated approximately $33 million of adjusted property EBITDA, broadly steady from the previous quarter despite economic pressure in the Philippines. City of Dreams Mediterranean and Melco’s Cyprus Satellite Casinos delivered their highest quarterly EBITDA since operations began. Sri Lanka remained in its ramp-up phase as the company continued to assess customer preferences.

The newly branded REM hotel is fully operational with an additional 150 rooms. Management expects only a modest increase in expenses because staff have been reallocated and costs rationalized elsewhere.

At City of Dreams Macau, upgraded retail and food-and-beverage areas are expected to open progressively from late 2026. A substantial portion is scheduled to begin operating before Chinese New Year, with construction continuing into summer 2027.

Management Guidance

For Q4 2026, management provided the following non-operating guidance:

The interest expense guidance includes approximately $6 million related to fees for the Macau gaming concession and Cyprus gaming license, plus approximately $5 million of finance lease interest related to City of Dreams Manila.

Melco expects Q4 2026 CapEx of approximately $95 million, bringing full-year spending to roughly $375 million. Management projects approximately $275 million of CapEx for 2027, below its previous guidance.

Risks and Areas to Watch

Management identified softness across multiple customer segments in Macau, not only among the highest-value players. It linked this weakness primarily to broader Chinese economic and consumption conditions, while also mentioning possible effects from the World Cup and overseas tax issues.

Competitive intensity remains a key margin risk. Management warned that aggressive customer reinvestment across the industry could amplify the EBITDA impact of weaker gaming demand.

VIP win-rate volatility also affected quarterly results, particularly at City of Dreams Macau. In addition, the final accounting treatment of the Macau government guidance fund investment remained under review with the company’s auditors.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Capital allocation: Management said consolidating Studio City’s corporate structure is not a current priority. Deleveraging remains the primary objective, but Melco intends to continue repurchasing ADSs if valuation remains around current levels. The company has no debt maturities in 2027 after redeeming $600 million of 5.625% senior notes due 2027.

Debt management: Studio City redeemed $165 million of 6.5% senior notes due 2028, funded mainly through its senior secured credit facility and cash on hand. Melco said both this transaction and the redemption of its 2027 notes reduced interest expense.

Dividend timing: Management said it would aim to restart the dividend potentially toward the end of 2027, but the timing remains uncertain because share buybacks may continue to compete for capital.

Macau investment commitments: Lawrence Ho said the Macau government guidance fund investment counting toward mandatory investment requirements removes some uncertainty around the need for additional events or other spending.

Margin protection: Management is focusing on disciplined customer reinvestment, sales-force changes and operating-cost controls. It expects a modest expense increase from REM’s full operation but is seeking savings elsewhere to limit the net impact.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited. [Operator Instructions]

Today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Jeanny Kim, Senior Vice President, Group Treasurer of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. On the call are Lawrence Ho, Geoff Davis, Evan Winkler and our Property Presidents in Macau, Manila and Cyprus.

Before we get started, please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Our actual results could differ from our anticipated results. In addition, we may discuss non-GAAP measures. Definitions and reconciliations of each of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release. Finally, please note that our supplementary earnings slides are posted on our Investor Relations website.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Lawrence Ho.

Yau Ho

Thank you, Jeanny, and thank you all for joining us today. We continue to be confident in the long-term prospects of our business in Macau. We're focused on disciplined execution of our strategy to drive strong returns. Our distinctive product portfolio in Macau reflects the best in luxury and innovation. Coupled with the opening of our newly branded hotel REM and the renovation of our retail space at City of Dreams, we believe we're well positioned to capture the demands of our evolving customer base, supporting long-term growth.

We're also proud that Morpheus at City of Dreams has been awarded 3 Michelin Keys, becoming the first hotel in Macau and 1 of only 4 in Greater China to receive this distinction. This recognition underscores our commitment to delivering exceptional hospitality and guest experiences.

We continue to enhance our product offerings through improvements to City of Dreams retail and food and beverage experiences. Work is underway. We expect to unveil completed areas progressively from the end of this year, with a substantial portion coming on stream before Chinese New Year and construction continuing into the summer of 2027. Once complete, City of Dreams will offer the most interactive retail and dining experience in Macau, one that is truly second to none.

The Macau market remains extremely competitive. We have been increasingly disciplined in allocating resources with a sharper focus on customer acquisition and reinvestment and ensuring every dollar invested strengthens returns. Alongside these efforts, our performance has improved, with our business outperforming the broader Macau market in October.

Turning to the operations outside Macau. In the Philippines, despite broader economic pressures, City of Dreams Manila demonstrated resilience, with adjusted property EBITDA remaining steady at approximately $33 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the prior quarter. In Cyprus, City of Dreams Mediterranean and our Satellite Casinos continue to show strong growth, recording the highest quarterly EBITDA since the start of operations. In Sri Lanka, we continue to build on our understanding of the market and customer preferences as we ramp up operations.

With that, I turn the call over to Geoff.

Geoffrey Davis

Thank you, Lawrence. Our group-wide adjusted property EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $288 million. Adjusted for VIP hold, our adjusted property EBITDA was approximately $298 million. Unfavorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Macau negatively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $14 million, partially offset by favorable VIP win rates at City of Dreams Manila and Sri Lanka, which positively impacted property EBITDA by approximately $2 million at each property.

Total daily OpEx in Macau declined to approximately $3.2 million during the third quarter of 2026, inclusive of House Advantage, and below our prior guidance. While the operating environment remains competitive, we continue to review our operating structure and adjust spending in response to changes in demand and business volumes while maintaining the highest standards of service and product offerings.

Turning to our balance sheet. We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position. As of September 30, 2026, we had total liquidity of approximately $2 billion, including approximately $887 million of cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. Melco Resorts, excluding Studio City, the Philippines, Cyprus and Sri Lanka, accounted for approximately $474 million of cash and cash equivalents.

During the quarter, Studio City redeemed $165 million in aggregate principal amount of its 6.5% senior notes due 2028. The redemption was funded principally through a drawdown under Studio City's senior secured credit facility and cash on hand, which reduces interest expense.

In September, Melco Resorts also redeemed $600 million in aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% senior notes due 2027 in full. The redemption was funded through a drawdown under Melco's revolving credit facilities and also resulted in reduced interest expense. We currently do not have any debt maturities in 2027.

From July 1 through November 3, 2026, we repurchased approximately 33.1 million of our ADSs for consideration of approximately $160 million. This brings total repurchases in 2026 to approximately 47.1 million ADSs for aggregate consideration of approximately $236 million.

As we normally do, we'll give you some guidance on non-operating line items for the upcoming fourth quarter of 2026. Total depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $140 million to $145 million. Corporate expense is expected to come in at approximately $20 million to $25 million and consolidated net interest expense is expected to be approximately $115 million to $120 million. This includes finance liability interest of approximately $6 million relating to fees payable in relation to the Macau gaming concession and the Cyprus gaming license and finance lease interest of approximately $5 million relating to City of Dreams Manila.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, back to you for the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from David Bain with Texas Capital Bank.

Question-and-Answer Session

David Bain

Great. I guess, first, during the quarter, we saw, I would call it, notable volatility in share price dislocation with MSC and recognizing liquidity makes it difficult to be opportunistic, I guess, in the open market, it kind of reopened the debate, I think, around potential consolidation.

Just given your focus on deleveraging and maybe even the upcoming dividend this year, does consolidating MSC corporate structure, does that rank somewhere within the priority list? Or just any kind of color around what kind of conditions could things evolve that direction?

Yau Ho

David, it's Lawrence. Maybe I'll start and Geoff can supplement. I think our corporate priority, as we've stated for the last 2 or 3 years, has been to delever. But recognizing there is a massive dislocation of share prices versus what we believe the fair market value of Melco Resorts is, as Geoff said in his prepared remarks, that we have bought back a lot of shares at Melco. So any sort of Studio City consolidation, that is not a priority at all. But at the same time, we're always open to look at what is the optimum structure.

David Bain

Got it. That makes sense. Okay. And then can we also get your take on the recent Macau government guidance fund? Just given the reinvestment or the investment counts towards the mandatory quotas, does that alleviate maybe uncertainty in terms of non-gaming physical expansion disruption? Is this a better result for you in your requirement? And does it even more broadly have any theoretical impact on 2032 renewals either from a goodwill perspective or structurally?

Yau Ho

Well, I think we think so. We're always happy to support the government in their initiatives. And I think the most important thing for Melco and our fellow competitors in the industry is that this counts towards the stated investment. And so I think if anything, it does remove some of the uncertainties of having to do more events or other things. So all in all, I think it's a good outcome.

Geoffrey Davis

And David, if there was an accounting question in there, there is going to be a difference in how we treat it at MIDL with IFRS versus U.S. GAAP for MLCO. So for MIDL, the accounting will record the investment as an asset, likely an intangible asset, but we're still finalizing that with our auditors. And similarly, at Melco, we're still working with our auditors on the final treatment there. But we do anticipate accounting for it as an asset downstairs as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from Praveen Choudhary with Morgan Stanley.

Praveen Choudhary

Congrats on steady business and grand opening of REM Hotel. I have 2 questions. The first one is financial. Could you tell us if you have a deleveraging target either over the next 12 months or over a medium period? But also do you have a dividend reinstatement target? That's the first question.

The second question is just asking about the current demand environment, especially if you can talk about second half of October, November. There has been some slowdown in the premium segment and then how are you looking at it right now?

Yau Ho

Praveen, maybe I'll take the second question first and let Geoff answer the first one, and Evan can supplement it. But I think we're -- the market is challenging right now. And I think everybody saw that October was down 10%. And let's not forget last year, last October, October 2025, I mean, we had typhoons and then I think Mid-Autumn Festival was stuck in there. So it was already kind of a low base.

So it is -- I think on other calls, we've also listened. I don't think there's one factor. I think the main thing is really the consumption part of the Chinese economy tends to be a bit weak right now. And there could be aftereffects of the World Cup, the overseas tax issues. So I think it's a little bit of a perfect storm.

But I don't think it affects our long-term thesis of the durability of this market. But I think at the same time, we were happy to see that we made some changes over August and September, and those are starting to play out for us in October. But I think maybe Evan can talk about it more.

Evan Winkler

Yes. No, I think, Praveen, as you talk about the market, I think we saw similar to what others have seen, which is there is some softness going into October. I don't think it was only at the high end, although people talk about sort of different points on what the high end is, but we did see some softness going in.

I think, as Lawrence alluded to, our relative positioning because we've been going through some changes in our sales force and other things in the August, September time frame bore some fruit. So we did a little bit better in October from a company standpoint. But from an overall market standpoint, I think as Lawrence said, we've hit a little bit of a soft pocket.

I think some of that is just the general overall China economy coming through. I'm not sure that I would point, and I know others have, acutely only to the high end. It's not just in the sort of top, top players that we're seeing. We are seeing some general softness as you go down, which makes us sort of feel like it's probably a little bit more overall China economy than just the specific tax one that's sort of getting the headlines. But as Lawrence said, I think as we look forward, I don't think we view it as a permanent structural change. I think we view it more as a soft pocket and we're working through it.

Geoffrey Davis

And Praveen, on your first question, as Lawrence said, deleveraging is our #1 priority with our free cash flow. We don't have a specific target to share, but we'd like to be a lot closer to where we were in 2019 versus where we are today.

And on the dividend, perhaps to echo what we said on the second quarter call, we would still aim to recommence the dividend potentially towards the end of next year, but that will be very hard to predict the exact timing given that we will have potentially other opportunities to continue to buy back stock.

We have prioritized buying back stock at these very dislocated levels of valuation. And you can expect us to continue to buy stock if the shares stay at or around these levels. So dividend is still something we would endeavor to do on the horizon, but timing is difficult to pinpoint.

Praveen Choudhary

Those are very clear. Can I have a follow-up question? I wanted to ask about the competitive intensity. First of all, the OpEx number looks good. So clearly, everyone, but also you, are working on your OpEx. But the issue is that now our GGR numbers for the market have turned negative.

When revenue was great, our cost was also up for the industry. And now that GGR is negative, even though we are working on OpEx and reinvestment, I'm worried that EBITDA growth is not visible. I just wanted to understand from your perspective sitting there, what could you do to ensure that your EBITDA is not falling or you can maintain it at this level? What else can you do?

Evan Winkler

Why don't I lead off and Lawrence and Geoff may also comment. Again, I think from where we are as a market and what we're focused on very much so is that as you go into a period of lower demand that you're not trying to chase to unhealthy levels in reinvestment to get the business that's there.

So we actually, as we speak, are launching our new player club tomorrow morning. So we've gone back over the last sort of couple of months in the wake of some changes that we've made in our sales force to make sure that we're taking an appropriate and disciplined approach to how we're looking at reinvestment relative to player performance sort of across the board and trying to make sure that we're putting in guardrails and everything else to make sure that we maintain margins moving forward.

So I think the approach that we're taking and we're sort of signaling to the market is we think the right thing to be doing here is to continue to be disciplined in what we're doing going forward because it's very easy to chase everybody down to the bottom, especially if you're in a market where people feel like they need to grab a little bit of share because revenue is soft.

I think we feel good about where we are and what we're doing, but the market is going to continue to be dynamic. And the market right now continues to be competitive. So what I would tell you is we, with Lawrence's direction, put in place programs that we think are customer-attractive but preserve margin. And we're going to have to see how that plays out over the next month or 2 because obviously, we're going to react to what others do.

But the hope is that others will sort of follow the lead and take a rational approach because, again, as demand softens, you don't want to double the impact by having a circumstance where everyone is throwing money at getting the remaining share and driving down margin disproportionately. So I'd say we're a leader in rationality, but whether or not everyone decides to follow suit or to check themselves into the asylum, we will see over the next month or so.

Operator

Your next question comes from Timothy Chau with Citigroup.

Tak-Hei Chau

I think I was on mute just now. I actually have 2 questions here. The first one is about REM. If I remember correctly, from last quarter's guidance, I think the opening of REM should not have a significant impact on the costing of the overall group. I'm just wondering if this guidance still stands, seeing REM is currently operating normally now.

The second question is about the CapEx guidance. I'm just wondering if there's any change or any color on how we should be looking at the CapEx guidance -- sorry, CapEx by the end of this year and also next year.

Evan Winkler

Sure. So this is Evan. Maybe I'll take REM and then Geoff will do CapEx. I think the guidance that we gave you in the last call is correct in the sense that Tim and the team at COD have worked very hard to try and move bodies around not to increase incremental costs in terms of opening up the additional room count.

We are going to see a tick-up in expenses overall just because it still is an incremental 150 keys, but we're trying to find other places where we can rationalize expense. So I would say it's not a dramatic move up, but there will be a tick-up now that we've got REM fully operational.

Geoffrey Davis

And on the second question on CapEx. So we've been able to bring down CapEx for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027 as compared to prior guidance. So for the fourth quarter of this year, we're looking at about $95 million of CapEx, bringing the total to roughly $375 million. And then for next year, we're looking for total CapEx of around $275 million.

Operator

There are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Jeanny Kim for closing remarks.

Jeanny Kim

Thank you for participating in the conference call today, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.