OGE Energy (OGE) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Guidance Raised to $2.62-$2.68

Key Takeaways

• OGE Energy reported Q3 2026 consolidated net income of approximately $316 million, or $1.52 per diluted share, compared with $231 million, or $1.14 per share, in Q3 2025.
• Management raised 2026 consolidated earnings guidance to $2.62-$2.68 per share, assuming normal weather for the remainder of the year.
• More than 45 days of triple-digit temperatures drove higher electricity consumption. OGE set a new peak load four times, with 15 days exceeding its 2024 peak record.
• The company filed for preapproval to build the 755-megawatt Horseshoe Lake Unit 15. The project represents approximately $1.75 billion of investment and is expected to enter service in 2031.
• OGE still has approximately 1.1 gigawatts of capacity needs after Unit 15. Management intends to own and operate most of the additional resources, which are expected to be primarily gas-fired generation, potentially combined with solar and storage.
• OGE established an at-the-market equity program authorizing up to $750 million of common equity issuance. The current capital plan assumes approximately $200 million of incremental equity over the planning period.

Core Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

The summer was the hottest OGE had experienced in 15 years, according to management. Its service area recorded more than 45 days above 100 degrees, compared with one such day in the prior year. The system operated without public conservation requests despite four new peak-load records.

Residential electricity prices per kilowatt-hour were 7% lower year over year in August and September, but prolonged air-conditioning use increased customer consumption. Customer growth and weather-normalized load growth were both approximately 1%.

Management said the load-growth variance largely reflected the timing of customer ramps and maintenance outages among some larger customers. Existing customer commitments remained in place.

Horseshoe Lake Units 11 and 12 were completed ahead of schedule and $12 million under budget. The units added approximately 448 megawatts of flexible generation capacity and brought OGE’s total 2026 additions to 544 megawatts. Their early completion is expected to avoid up to $16 million of capacity purchases during the winter.

Units 13 and 14 are under construction and are expected to add another 440 megawatts. OGE also filed with the Oklahoma Corporation Commission for preapproval of the 755-megawatt Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 and plans a filing with the Arkansas Public Service Commission.

Unit 15 is expected to require approximately $1.75 billion of investment and enter service in 2031. Management estimates that the recovery mechanism provided by recent Oklahoma legislation could save customers more than $900 million over the asset’s life while reducing bill volatility during construction.

OGE’s five-year capital plan now includes an additional $555 million following approval of the Frontier Energy storage project and recent notices to construct. This includes $160 million of transmission investment planned between 2027 and 2030.

Management Guidance

OGE raised its 2026 consolidated earnings guidance to $2.62-$2.68 per share. The range assumes normal weather for the rest of 2026 and includes opportunities to execute work previously planned for future years.

Management plans to provide an update on accepted Southwest Power Pool notices to construct with fourth-quarter results. Updates on the Oklahoma rate review and Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 preapproval case are expected with first-quarter results, followed by updates on additional generation approvals with second-quarter results.

The company said it will reassess its longer-term EPS growth outlook holistically in 2027 as regulatory decisions, project approvals and financing plans develop.

Risks and Areas to Watch

• The updated 2026 guidance assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year after unusually hot summer conditions materially increased demand.
• Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 and additional generation projects remain subject to regulatory review and approval in Oklahoma and Arkansas.
• The company is still negotiating solutions for approximately 1.1 gigawatts of remaining capacity needs, leaving project mix, costs and timing unresolved.
• Customer ramps and maintenance outages have affected near-term weather-normalized load growth.
• Management said conversions of cryptocurrency loads to artificial intelligence workloads could change the nature of demand and increase required capacity.
• Future equity needs will depend on project-specific conditions and OGE’s objective of maintaining long-term credit metrics.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Ownership of new generation: Management said OGE intends to own and operate most of the remaining generation capacity. Short-term bridge capacity may be used while projects are under construction. The resource mix is expected to be primarily gas, with possible solar and storage components.

ATM program: The $750 million authorization is intended to provide financing flexibility and is not, by itself, a signal of additional projects. OGE currently expects to raise approximately $200 million through the program over the planning horizon.

Regulatory returns: Management said cost control, capital allocation, plant-in-service accounting and load growth have historically helped OGE earn close to its allowed return on equity. It expects earned returns to remain relatively smooth rather than changing only when rate cases are completed.

Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 review: Management pointed to the competitive request-for-proposals process, independent bid review, use of an existing brownfield site, project economics and OGE’s construction record as supporting factors. Oklahoma’s preapproval process provides for a 180-day regulatory review.

Transmission investment: The $160 million added to the capital plan comes from projects assigned under the 2025 Southwest Power Pool Integrated Transmission Plan. Management said the 2026 transmission planning process remains at an early stage.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the OGE Energy Corp. 2026 Third Quarter Earnings and Business Update Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Casey Strange, Investor Relations senior management. Please go ahead.

Cassandra Strange

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. With me today, I have Sean Trauschke, our Chairman, President and CEO; and Chuck Walworth, our CFO.

In terms of the call today, we will first hear from Sean, followed by an explanation from Chuck for financial results. And finally, as always, we will answer your questions. I would like to remind you that this conference is being webcast and you may follow along at oge.com.

In addition, the conference call and accompanying slides will be archived following the call on that same website. Before we begin the presentation, I would like to direct your attention to the safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. This is an SEC requirement for financial statements and simply states that we cannot guarantee forward-looking financial results, but this is our best estimate to date.

I will now turn the call over to Sean for his opening remarks. Sean?

R. Trauschke

Thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. This morning, we reported consolidated earnings of $1.52 per share. And before Chuck provides more detail on our third quarter results, I'll highlight the team's outstanding performance during an unusually hot summer and outline the key milestones we anticipate over the coming quarters.

This summer underscored the importance of a reliable, resilient electric grid. Our service area experienced more than 45 days of triple-digit temperatures compared with just one last year. Through the prolonged heat, our system performed exceptionally well, and our team safely delivered our customers depend on. For context, we hit a new peak load 4 times this summer, with 15 days exceeding our 2024 peak record, but at no time where their calls for the public to conserve energy, our systems just built to withstand these extremes.

A note that's important. While our residential price per kilowatt hour was actually 7% lower in August and September than a year ago, extended air conditioning use drove higher electricity consumption. Weather impacts tend to balance out over time. And this summer's elevated cooling demand followed several quarters of milder temperatures and lower weather-driven usage.

Our reliability focus shapes the Oklahoma rate review, this is our first since December of 2023. The filing reflects investments to strengthen our system, support growth and meet evolving requirements while expanding assistance and payment flexibility for our customers. The review includes following expanded assistance and payment options to help customers manage their bills. We are expanding both the senior discount and low-income assistance program, we are launching an innovative pilot program to help customers with past due balances, get back on track with payments, and we're offering new [ choose-by ] due date prepayment options that give customers more flexibility to manage their household budgets.

As the regulatory process moves forward, we remain focused on balancing reliability and affordability and considering the impacts of inflation and interest rates and creating long-term value for customers and shareholders. Looking ahead, we are advancing additional generation resources to serve growing demand and maintain reliability. We filed yesterday with the Oklahoma Corporation Commission seeking preapproval to construct a new 755-megawatt combined cycle plant at our Horseshoe Lake site, and we'll file in the coming weeks with the Arkansas Public Service Commission.

We're finalizing valuations and negotiations from our competitive request for proposals and expect to submit projects to both commissions as agreements are completed. We remain committed to delivering capacity customers' need responsibly and cost effectively and we anticipate submitting additional preapproval filings before year-end. Meanwhile, that broader generation strategy is taking shape. Horseshoe Lake units 11 to 12 were completed ahead of schedule and $12 million under budget, bringing the units online early allowed us to avoid up to $16 million in capacity purchase this winter.

These units add approximately 448 megawatts of flexible generation capacity, bringing the total additions this year to 544 megawatts. Units 13 and 14 are under construction and will add another 440 megawatts and the Horseshoe Lake projects build on more than 100-year legacy at that site while supporting reliable, efficient generation for the future. As we build and invest in our system, we are also strengthening support for our communities.

We refreshed our lend to hand bill assistance program with a broader network of trusted nonprofit partners and a financial commitment from the OGE Energy Corporation Foundation to match customer donations and we'll continue to support our vulnerable customers and assist communities as we deliver reliable electricity and low cost for everyone.

As we move forward, we'll continue our disciplined approach to securing generation resources needed to serve growing demand, advancing projects through the regulatory process and delivering investments that maintain our competitive low-rate advantage. Our progress to date positions us for several milestones over the coming quarters. So on our fourth quarter earnings call, we will provide an update on the [ SPP ] notices to construct that we accept. On the first quarter call, we will provide an update on the Oklahoma rate review and the Horseshoe Lake 15 pre-approval case.

And then on our second quarter call, we'll provide an update on the regulatory approval for the additional generation filings we're making in this year. Together, these regulatory generation and community initiatives position the company for long-term success while preserving the reliable low-cost service our customers enjoy. In doing so, they established the foundation for the investments needed to meet growing demand across our service area.

So with that, thank you, and I'll turn the call over to Chuck. Chuck?

Charles Walworth

Thank you, Sean, and thank you, Casey. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to review 2026 3rd quarter results with you today. Let's start on Slide 5. Consolidated net income was approximately $316 million or $1.52 per diluted share compared to $231 million or $1.14 per share in the same period of 2025. In our core business, the electric company achieved net income of approximately $321 million or $1.54 per diluted share compared to $243 million or $1.20 per share in the same period of 2025.

The increase in net income was primarily driven by significantly warmer third quarter weather partially offset by increased income tax expense. The holding company reported a loss of approximately $5 million or $0.02 per diluted share compared to a loss of $12 million or $0.06 per share in the same period of 2025. These results were driven by higher income from energy-related investments and lower interest expense.

Turning to our 2026 outlook. Weather through the third quarter was significantly warmer than normal, with summer temperatures reaching levels we haven't experienced in 15 years. As a result, we are raising our 2026 consolidated earnings guidance range to $2.62 to $2.68 per share. This updated range assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year and reflects opportunities to execute work planned for future years. Demand across our service area remains healthy, with both customer growth and weather-normalized load growth at approximately 1%.

The variance on load is largely timing related, reflecting customer ramps as well as maintenance outages that have reduced usage among some of our larger customers. customer commitments remain firmly in place, giving us continued confidence in the stronger longer-term growth ahead.

That growth is translating into important investment opportunities across our system and Horseshoe Lake Unit 15 is a great example. As Sean discussed, the project was selected through our 2026 all-source RFP and was the highest rank project in that process. Unit 15 will add efficient, dispatchable generation while leveraging the existing infrastructure at Horseshoe Lake. The project represents approximately $1.75 billion of investment with an expected in-service date in 2031.

Recent legislation in Oklahoma provides significant benefits for customers as we make these investments. It provides SWIP recovery, which we estimate will save customers more than $900 million over the life of the asset, while smoothing the impact on customer bills during construction. The legislation also established a timely 180-day regulatory review process for preapproval filings providing greater certainty as we work to bring needed resources online.

With the addition of Unit 15, we have approximately 1.1 gigawatts of remaining capacity need as we continue to finalize solutions to meet that remaining need you should expect to see additional preapproval filings. The bottom line is that our growing service area is creating a clear need for additional infrastructure, and we are moving quickly to advance investments that support reliability, serve that growth and deliver long-term value for customers.

With that growth and investment need in mind, let me turn to a financing update. We are establishing an inaugural at-the-market equity program, which authorizes up to $750 million of common equity issuances. The ATM gives us a flexible and efficient way to access equity as our capital needs grow. While its forward sale feature allows us to align issuance with the timing of our investments. That flexibility supports our growing capital plan while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

With the approval of Frontier and the recent NTCs, our 5-year capital plan now includes an incremental $555 million of investment. This includes million related to the Frontier Energy storage project, which received regulatory approval during the third quarter and $160 million of transmission investments playing between 2027 and 2030. As we've consistently communicated, projects are incorporated into our capital plan once we have received the appropriate approvals, at which point we will also provide our associated financing assumptions.

With these investments now reflected in the plan, we expect approximately $200 million of incremental equity over the planning horizon, which we expect to raise through the ATM program. This balanced financing approach allows us to fund these investments while supporting strong credit metrics.

In closing, our momentum continues to build. We remain focused on executing with discipline, maintaining affordability and a strong balance sheet and making investments needed to serve growing demand. That focus positions us to deliver long-term value for both customers and shareholders.

With that, I'll turn it back to Sean, and we'll be happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will be coming from the line of Aidan Kelly of JPMorgan.

Question-and-Answer Session

Aidan Kelly

Just maybe I want to follow up on the Horseshoe Lake 15 filing, if I could. Maybe how are you thinking about the likelihood of utility ownership versus third-party procurement for the remaining 1.1 gigawatt of capacity needs as you kind of think through that?

R. Trauschke

Yes. Yes. Thanks for the question, Aidan. I think it is our intent to own and operate the majority of that. It's we think we've proven that. And when we have weather extremes, we want the ball, so to speak, to kind of operate those plants and make sure we keep the lights on. So it's our intent to own and operate this, we will utilize obviously some short-term bridge capacity and things like that as things are going under construction, but it's our expectation to own it.

Aidan Kelly

Great. Appreciate that. And then just going to the financing side. I know you mentioned the ATM program there. So kind of with up to $200 million of equity supporting that expanded capital plan, I guess how should we interpret the decision to establish a larger $750 million facility. Is that kind of a read-through to the incremental financing into the next plan update? Or kind of how do you address the sizing of that?

Charles Walworth

Yes. Aidan, great question. This is Chuck. Really, I would say it's not tied to future opportunities. It's really frankly, we're one of the few utilities that didn't have an ATM. And given the vast opportunities in front of us, we thought it was time to establish one. So we did the usual routine of benchmarking the size and just did something that we thought was appropriate for our company.

So again, it's not the only way to finance projects. We'll continue to evaluate all avenues of financing in the future, but it's definitely something we wanted to have at our disposal. So I wouldn't read into the numbers any. It's just us making sure we've got all the tools available.

Operator

One moment for the next question. And our next question will be coming from the line of Shar Pourreza of Wells Fargo.

Whitney Mutalemwa

This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar. Congrats on the quarter. So with rate base growing at 9.6% CAGR against the long-term earnings growth rate, could you help us bridge that gap, specifically what I'm looking for is how many basis points of regulatory lag you're running today versus your authorized return. And then how much of that you'd expect the rate review in Oklahoma as well as the Quip rider to close over the plan?

Charles Walworth

Whitney, great to hear from you. I think a couple of things on that. One, historically, we've done a fairly good job through cost control and capital allocation to really earn close to our allowed ROE. So I guess that's point number one. And then in terms of the rate case impact, I mean, obviously, that's a key impact there. But also remember that with plant and service accounting and load growth, that's a pretty good bridge as well. between that.

So I guess what I'm trying to get to is that I would expect our earned ROE to continue to be smooth into the future rather than taking step function changes and resetting with rate cases. So hopefully, that helps paint a picture for you.

Whitney Mutalemwa

Yes, yes, I totally understand. And then just as a follow-up to Aidan's question on the new ATM. I saw that there's a lower 55% to 60% payout target, is the 35 to 40 equity share on today's additions or reasonable framework for Horseshoe like 15 and the 765 as they come in.

Charles Walworth

Whitney, we look at every project individually and not only on the project, but where other conditions are at the time that we finance and the length of it and the attributes and everything. So you've kind of seen 2 announcements from us now on equity raises, so you can kind of use that as a gauge. But at the end of the day, we're solving for our credit metrics over the long term. And that's going to dictate how we finance it.

Operator

One on me for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Nicholas Campanella of Barclays.

Nicholas Campanella

First question is, of the one point of the 14 winning bids, how many will be owned and how many are PPAs?

R. Trauschke

Are you talking about the remaining generation needs we have?

Nicholas Campanella

Yes.

R. Trauschke

I think it's our our intent with what we've demonstrated today to own this, we will utilize some rich capacity is obviously during construction and periods like that. But we've not finalized all those negotiations yet, but I want to reiterate one more time that it's our intent to own these. We think that's the better outcome for our service territory.

Operator

One moment for the next question, please. Our next question will be coming from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies.

Brian Russo

It's Brian Russo on for Julien. Could you just talk about OGE's positioning and our strategy with the upcoming SPP 2026 [ ITP ]. What can we expect from that Board meeting, I think, is planned for November?

Charles Walworth

Yes. Brian, obviously, it's something that we've been tracking and been involved in very closely. I think if you recall, the 2025 ITP kind of took a while to play out. And as we indicated in our remarks, we expect some closure on the in TCs later this year.

So I can't give specific dates, but I wouldn't think it'd be unreasonable that the '26 ITP follows kind of a similar cadence. So you're right, there is an SPP board meeting in November, and then there's another one in February. And so I believe the one in February will likely address which lines are direct to signed due to reliability reasons. And then the process will kind of go from there. So it's it's a little early still for the '26 [ ITP ], but again, the numbers that are out there publicly are pretty impressive and definitely a lot of good stuff out there.

Brian Russo

Okay. Great. And just to clarify, the $160 million you added to the base plan for transmission, that is not the [ report seminal line ]? Is that correct?

Charles Walworth

No, it's not. So it is out of the '25 ITP. There were a number of projects assigned to us out of the '25 ITP. The largest being the [ Seminole to Shreveport ], now long wood line and -- but there were a couple of other smaller ones. And so those are the ones that we've added today.

Brian Russo

Okay. Great. And then can you just comment on your existing cryptocurrency load? And any migration or conversion towards the proposed or pending XL PL, how might that change your resource plans in the future, I guess, excluding this 1.1 gigawatts that's remaining under the 2026 IRP RFP.

Charles Walworth

Brian, I think as we've indicated before, crypto load converting the AI is something that we continue to see an interest in. We don't have anything to announce on that other than that continues to be a theme. And I think the main thing to remember, as it pertains to the 1.1 gigawatts is really the nature of the load, right?

So and the requirements from the SPP. So to the extent that the load changes its nature and it increases our capacity needs, you're going to see that $1.1 billion go up.

Brian Russo

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, I assume you're reaffirming the top end of the 5% to 7% EPS CAGR even with now the 9.6% rate base growth versus 9% previously. When might we expect the next kind of update on CAGR? Would it be with the notice to construct on the SPP line or further into 2027 after we get approval of this Horseshoe Lake 15?

Charles Walworth

Yes, Brian, we'll definitely take a fresh look at it next year. And as Sean mentioned, we've got really a pretty busy calendar of quarterly events next year. So whatever decisions we make on that, we'll do it holistically with all of those events in mind.

Operator

One moment for the next question. And our next question will be coming from the line of [ Rui ] of [ Mizuho ].

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Rui ] for Anthony Crowdell. So just a follow-up on the Horseshoe Lake project. Following your preapproval filing and you mentioned the 180-day time line. And given the history of this project, can you just walk us through what are some of the key factors for the review? And which area would we expect to see some scrutinies on that?

R. Trauschke

In terms of -- yes, so I think it will just be the normal and customary discussions. We follow the commission process in terms of going through a robust RFP. The staff initiated an independent reviewer that evaluated all of the bids along with us.

And then it's -- I think it's duly noted or should be duly noted that being able to utilize brownfield sites and really to capture those benefits and really further reducing the cost in particular, for Horseshoe Lake 15, it's material it really moves the needle. So I think the last point would be our demonstrated excellence around bringing these projects in on time and on budget. We've been building gas plants for a while now. This isn't a new theme for us. And so we've got the track record.

So, normally, you'd have a discussion about need that's evident to all involved. Sometimes you'd have a discussion about if you [ follow ] the process. We've done that to [indiscernible]. Sometimes you have a discussion around, can you do this? Do you have the capabilities to do this. We've demonstrated that before. And then the last point is, is it economic and clearly on a price per [ KW ] it stacks up very, very well.

So nothing -- I don't want to suggest there won't be discussions. There's always going to be discussions. But I think the fact pattern around Horseshoe Lake 15 is very strong.

Operator

One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of [ Ian Rap ] of Scotiabank.

Unknown Analyst

Maybe going back to Horseshoe Lake again. As you work through the remaining RFP submission. And, obviously, I don't want to front run those negotiations in those announcements. But looking at capacity types and technologies, this was kind of framed as the #1 option in terms of the ranking in the RFP, both on cost and other attributes being responsive to SPP rules. But just curious how we should think about your plan around different technology types and whether this cost per KW is repeatable for the 1.1 gigawatts remaining.

R. Trauschke

Well, as Chuck mentioned, this was the #1 rated project. We are sensitive to the cost of the projects and the value it brings to our customers. I think we've been straightforward in terms of primarily, it's going to be gas, maybe some combination of solar and storage, but principally gas.

And I'll probably leave it there because we're still finalizing these negotiations. And just don't want to give anything away.

Unknown Analyst

Fair enough. That's helpful. And then maybe this has already been asked and answer to an extent, but just philosophically, as you guys kind of think about the the EPS CAGR updates and balancing sort of the seemingly increasing number of buckets of incremental CapEx versus your preference to be conservative with guidance and making sure that it's sustainable.

How are you thinking about kind of the cadence of step changes there? Is that something that you're going to kind of look at once for a year continue to at the EPS CAGR on a project-by-project basis as they roll in?

R. Trauschke

Yes. You came a little choppy there, but I think I got it, the cadence of EPS CAGR updates. Kind of similar to the question earlier, I mean it's not -- we don't necessarily look at it in tiny discrete areas, right? So like this project is this and so on. We'll take a holistic view of it next year. in light of kind of the timing of various projects and the opportunities that we see.

But again, kind of keep in mind what we've done in the past, right? It's we have the multistep process where we tell you about the projects we're working on. We get them approved. We have them with the plan. We tell you what that's doing in terms of rate base growth. We tell you how we're going to finance it. So there's there's a lot of keys to information along the way, right? And then when we think that there's kind of a critical mass and we'll we'll give the appropriate update at the time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] One moment for the next question, please. Our next question is coming from the line of Stephen D’Ambrisi of RBC.

As there are no more questions in the queue. I would like to turn the call back over to Sean Trauschke. Please go ahead for closing remarks.

R. Trauschke

Well, thank you, Lisa, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you in a few weeks, and I hope everyone has a great day.

Operator

Thank you all for joining the program today. You may now disconnect.