I'm Calling It: NuScale Power Stock Will Double as This Catalyst Hits

It's been a tough year for NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) investors. Since 2026 began, shares of the popular nuclear energy stock have fallen by roughly 45%.

NuScale's market cap is now down to just $3.2 billion. That looks like a bargain compared to the company's growth potential. Bank of America believes nuclear energy will be a $10 trillion opportunity in the coming decades. Small modular reactors, or SMRs -- the exact nuclear technology that NuScale specializes in -- are expected to take a big share of that opportunity.

NuScale's stock price has struggled in 2026 for several reasons. The biggest, perhaps, has been a lack of tangible catalysts. NuScale has several impressive opportunities in its project pipeline, but there hasn't been much traction in converting these deals into revenue-generating assets.

NuScale's biggest project is a 6 GW system intended for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), a major utility serving the eastern U.S. The deal between NuScale and TVA was signed in September 2025. At the time, NuScale's stock price hovered around $40 per share. At least from a headline perspective, there has been little progress on the deal since, sending NuScale's stock price below $10 earlier this month.

But there's good news: A major catalyst for NuScale's TVA project should be arriving soon. This catalyst is so meaningful that it wouldn't be surprising to see NuScale shares double as the catalyst approaches.

Here's the growth catalyst NuScale Power investors should be monitoring closely

Right now, the deal between NuScale and TVA is largely non-binding. The next step would be to sign a power purchase agreement (PPA). This agreement would commit TVA to buy power from NuScale's SMR system at a predetermined price for years, or even decades, to come. In short, it guarantees that NuScale will generate revenue from the nuclear project, allowing it to begin construction.

Image source: Getty Images.

In May, NuScale's management team noted that it remains very bullish on signing a PPA agreement with TVA by the end of 2026.

"ENTRA1 [NuScale's financing partner, which will be the party that actually signs the PPA with TVA] has updated us the discussions with TVA are advancing well toward a definitive PPA," NuScale's CEO revealed on a call with investors. "We remain highly encouraged by the progress and the strategic alignment between ENTRA1, TVA, and NuScale."

NuScale's CFO was even more specific. "We're hopeful that TVA can come across the line at some point later this year," he added. "We believe that's a strong possibility."

There is no guarantee that a PPA will be signed before the end of 2026. And to be clear, NuScale has failed to meet its own guidance in the past. But it is hard to overstate how valuable a signed PPA would be for the company.

With its stock price tumbling, NuScale's access to capital is growing more limited and costly. If the company's biggest project gets a firm revenue pathway, expect shares to rebound aggressively. A PPA not only improves access to capital, but it would also be a huge vote of confidence in the viability of the reset of NuScale's project pipeline.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.