Where Will TMC The Metals Company Be By This Time Next Year?

TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a rare-earth metals play. That's a major area of interest today, as countries and companies worldwide seek to diversify their supply of these vital materials. There's just one small problem with the company as an investment: it is nowhere near producing any rare-earth metals. And one year from now, well, it probably won't be all that much closer.

The big story behind The Metals Company

China is the world's main supplier of rare-earth metals. The country has proven that it is willing to use access to rare-earth metals as a geopolitical bargaining chip. These metals are vital to the technology that drives the modern world, including within the defense sector. Sovereign nations simply can't afford to give so much power to China. This is why there's so much government support going to rare-earth metal producers.

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The Metals Company is benefiting from this support. Notably, the U.S. government has pushed for changes to the process that would allow The Metals Company to obtain the permits it needs to build its planned mining operation. That should help accelerate the company's development. The U.S. is even working with Japan to speed the development of the entire industry niche in which The Metals Company operates.

The big problem is that The Metals Company wants to build a deep-sea mining operation. That's an extremely difficult task. And while the process is moving forward, the big achievement so far is that its permit application has been "formally certified by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)." That's great and an important step, but really, all that's happened is that NOAA has received the application and said it was filled out correctly.

One year is not going to be enough time to build this business

When you step back and look at The Metals Company, it is a money-losing start-up. In one year, it will likely still be a money-losing start-up, since it hasn't even gotten the final OK to start building an undersea mine yet. This is a high-risk investment that only aggressive investors with a very long-term horizon should consider buying.

Most investors should probably watch this stock from a safe distance until it has a producing mine. More conservative types may even want to wait until the company is profitable. A year probably won't be enough time for either of those things to happen.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.