SG Morning Brief | Chips Rebound 2%, Dow Hits Record 53K ; SpaceX in Nasdaq-100 Today

US Overnight

The Nasdaq gained over 1% and the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to a three-week high, with both indexes snapping two-day losing streaks. The Dow advanced 156 points (+0.29%) to a record 53,056 — its second consecutive all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied over 2%, bouncing from last week's 11% two-day rout, as investors positioned ahead of Samsung's preliminary Q2 earnings report and SK Hynix's Nasdaq ADR issuance later this week. Broadcom gained 3.7% after extending its partnership with Apple. ISM Services showed the US services sector expanded at a slightly slower pace in June, while firms increased hiring as cost pressures eased. SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 index before today's open, triggering forced buying from the $800 billion in assets that track the benchmark.

Key Movers

Western Digital (WDC) +7% / AMD +7% — Western Digital surged over 7% and AMD gained 6.6%, leading the chip rebound. Broadcom rose nearly 4% on the Apple deal extension, and Dell added over 4%. Nvidia gained modestly (+0.4%) after assembly partner Hon Hai Precision signaled that AI demand continues to strengthen. The rally was broad rather than concentrated, suggesting genuine dip-buying rather than a dead cat bounce.

Tesla (TSLA) +7% — Tesla rose 6.7%, leading the Magnificent Seven higher. Boeing (+3.55%), IBM (+3.43%), and Goldman Sachs (+3.28%) carried the Dow. Six of seven Mag 7 names rose — only Microsoft declined.

Microsoft (MSFT) -1% — Microsoft slipped nearly 1% after announcing 4,800 layoffs, the only Mag 7 name to close lower. The cuts targeted underperforming employees across the company, consistent with a broader industry trend of trimming headcount while increasing AI investment.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The overnight chip rebound and Dow record provide a constructive backdrop for Singapore today. SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion may create temporary selling pressure on existing QQQ constituents as index funds rebalance, but the mechanical impact should be limited given SpaceX's expected weighting below 1%. Samsung's Q2 preliminary earnings later this week are the next catalyst for the memory trade — a strong report could extend the chip recovery.

Asia Pre-Market

Futures data was not yet available. The tone heading into Tuesday is risk-on: Dow at a record, chips bouncing, oil near $69-72, and the VIX falling. SpaceX begins trading as a Nasdaq-100 component today — expect elevated volume as index trackers complete their forced purchases. Samsung's sales update on Friday will determine whether the memory selloff that wiped 11% from the SOX last week was a correction or the start of something deeper.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Q2 earnings season begins July 13 (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup).

Week Ahead Spotlight: June CPI (Thursday) — The single most important data point of the summer. May CPI was 4.2%. Since then, WTI crude has crashed from $95 to $69. If June CPI drops below 4%, the rate hike narrative effectively dies and Warsh can hold through September without pressure. Core CPI is the wildcard — May core was 3.4%, and housing/services inflation has been sticky regardless of oil. Wednesday's FOMC minutes from the June 17 meeting (Warsh's first) will provide additional context on how the committee views the oil-driven inflation unwind.

One More Thing

Two weeks ago, the chip index gained 88% in a single quarter. Then it lost 11% in two days. Now it bounced 2% on Monday. This is not a market that trades on fundamentals — it trades on flows, positioning, and narrative shifts. The fundamental reality has not changed: Micron's HBM is sold out, Nvidia's data center revenue is doubling, and Dell's AI server backlog is $51 billion. What changed was sentiment — the KOSPI crash seeded doubt, Broadcom's miss amplified it, and the DRAM lawsuit gave sellers an excuse. Monday's rebound is a test of whether the doubt was temporary or permanent. Samsung's Q2 numbers on Friday and Micron's next quarter will settle the debate. Until then, the 88% rally and the 11% correction are both still on the table.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.