Upstart Q4 Earnings, 2026 Guidance Impress, Names Paul Gu CEO

Upstart Holdings stock briefly climbed 14% in Tuesday after-hours trading after the company delivered a beat on its top and bottom lines in Q4 2025 and issued 2026 revenue guidance exceeding the consensus estimate.

The lending platform for banks and credit unions also announced that its chief technology officer, Paul Gu, will become CEO on May 1, 2026, succeeding co-founder Dave Girouard, who will remain as executive chairman.

The lending platform for banks and credit unions expects 2026 revenue of ~$1.4B vs. the $1.27B consensus. Revenue from fees is expected to be ~$1.3B, and adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be 21% vs. Visible Alpha consensus of 28.18%.

For the 2025 to 2028 period, the company is also targeting total revenue compounded annual growth rate of ~35% and terminal adjusted EBITDA margin of ~25%.

Upstart discontinued its quarterly guidance.

Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, topping the average analyst estimate of $0.15, compared with $0.23 in Q3 and -$0.03 in the prior year’s Q4.

Q4 total revenue of $296.1M, topping the $288.6M consensus, increased from $277.1M in the previous quarter and $219.0M a year ago.

Loans, at fair value, on its balance sheet fell to $984.6M at Dec. 31, 2025, from $1.23B at Sept. 30 and increased from $806.3M at Dec. 31, 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA of $63.7M, vs. the $63.5M Visible Alpha estimate, declined from $71.2M in Q3 and climbed from $38.8M in Q4 2024.

Upstart originated 455,788 loans during the quarter, totaling $3.2B, up 52% Y/Y. Its conversion rate of 19.4% compared with 20.6% in Q3 and 18.0% in the previous year’s Q4.

Contribution profit of $140.8M fell from $147.4M in the previous quarter and grew from $121.9M a year ago.