Eli Lilly Drops as Trial Data for Oral Obesity Drug Weigh on Q2 Results

Despite reporting better-than-expected Q2 financials and increasing its 2025 outlook, Eli Lilly shares fell on Thursday amid concerns over late-stage trial data for the company’s oral weight loss drug orforglipron.

Ahead of the Q2 print, the Indiana-based pharma giant posted initial data from its Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial indicating that its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist caused up to 11% of weight loss over 70 weeks, per the study’s intent-to-treat analysis. LLY shares lost ~14% in reaction, setting for biggest single-day drop since August 2000 while its rival Novo Nordisk added ~6% on Thursday.

However, unlike Novo, which recently lowered its growth outlook citing headwinds in the GLP-1 market, Eli Lilly increased the midpoint of its 2025 revenue guidance by $1.5B to $60B–$62B, in line with $60.1B in the consensus.

The company also revised its non-GAAP earnings outlook to $21.75 - $23.00 per share from $20.78 - $22.28, compared to $21.98 projected by analysts.

As for Q2, LLY generated $15.6B in revenue with ~38% YoY growth, as its obesity drug franchise, dominated by diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss therapy Zepbound, outperformed, adding more than $8B to the topline, driven by strong demand.

Mounjaro generated ~$5.2B with 68% YoY growth, while Zepbound added ~$3.4B, indicating 172% YoY growth and exceeding the ~$3.1B projected by analysts, according to Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, the company’s breast cancer therapy, Verzenio, brought in ~$1.5B in revenue, implying ~12% YoY growth.

LLY’s adjusted gross margin improved to 85% from 82% in the prior year period, while the company’s non-GAAP earnings rose 61% YoY to $6.31 per share, topping the consensus by $0.72.

"Lilly delivered another quarter of strong performance, achieving 38% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro and sustained momentum across our key medicines," CEO David Ricks remarked.