S&P 500 to trade in 5,200-6,000 range in the near term, JPMorgan says

Investing.com -- JPMorgan analysts expect the S&P 500 to remain range-bound between 5,200 and 6,000 in the near term, citing ongoing market volatility, policy uncertainty, and investor positioning risks. 

However, the bank maintained a year-end target of 6,500, though they acknowledge "a large standard error around this forecast and the possibility that S&P 500 may not reach this level until 2026."

The firm notes that "the US Exceptionalism trade has been experiencing turbulence" as a mix of policy uncertainty and weaker economic data has led to a sharp unwinding of momentum trades. 

Investor sentiment has also soured, with the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment index "collapsed to levels consistent with major market bottoms." 

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) warns that the market remains vulnerable to "mechanical liquidations due to factor crashes and losses in L/S books" as systematic strategies continue to deleverage.

Despite these challenges, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive. JPMorgan believes "the probability of this growth scare turning into a recession remains a low risk" due to factors such as lower borrowing rates, a weaker U.S. dollar, and healthy corporate and consumer balance sheets. 

The firm also highlights growing capital spending in the U.S., infrastructure and defense initiatives in Europe, and policy easing in China and Japan as key drivers of future demand and earnings growth.

JPMorgan expects the market to restrengthen later in the year, driven by a potential policy pivot from the Trump administration and ongoing AI-driven productivity gains. 

For now, they see "call overwriting as a timely strategy," allowing investors to generate attractive yields amid elevated volatility.