BofA remains bullish on ASML stock after bookings analysis

Investing.com -- Bank of America remains confident in ASML Holding (AS:ASML) N.V.’s revenue forecasts, reiterating its Buy rating and €859 price objective following an analysis of the company’s backlog and bookings requirements.

According to BofA, “further analysis of ASML's backlog confirms our view that ASML's CY25 revenue guidance is achievable.” 

The firm estimates that ASML must book €6.8 billion worth of Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) tools in 2025 to meet its guidance for the year.

BofA analysts examined ASML’s €43.3 billion in customer purchase obligations at the end of 2024, noting that 59% of this total, or €25.5 billion, is expected to be recognized in 2025. 

They note that within that, ASML’s systems backlog accounted for €36 billion, while €7.3 billion was attributed to Installed Base Management ( IBM (NYSE:IBM)), which is likely to be fully recognized in 2025 given a historical backlog conversion rate of 91%. 

This is said to result in an estimated €18.2 billion in system backlog revenue for 2025, compared to ASML’s system revenue guidance of €25 billion—leaving a €6.8 billion gap that must be filled with new DUV bookings.

Looking ahead to 2026, BofA notes that ASML’s purchase obligations “recognizable beyond ‘25” amount to €17.8 billion, which the firm assumes is entirely related to system sales. 

The firm estimates that ASML needs to book at least €9.3 billion worth of systems in 2025 to meet its €27.1 billion system sales target for 2026.

Despite potential headwinds, including tariffs affecting smartphone and PC demand, BofA maintains its Buy rating on ASML, citing strong EUV demand and reasonable visibility into 2026 forecasts.