GLP1 Tracker: Lilly continues to outgrow Novo- analyst

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts told investors in a note Tuesday that Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is gaining ground in the GLP-1 market, edging closer to market share parity with Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO). 

The firm’s latest GLP-1 tracker is said to show Lilly’s market share rising to 49.1% for the four-week period ending February 21, up from 48.8% the previous week.

Bernstein explained that “LLY taking even more market share” has been driven primarily by continued momentum in Zepbound, which now holds 17.8% of the market, up from 17.3% last week. 

Meanwhile, they note that Mounjaro is steadily growing, with a four-week year-over-year growth rate of 61%, up from 55% last week.

Overall, the GLP-1 category is said to remain on a strong growth trajectory. Bernstein notes that total weekly prescriptions across semaglutide (Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound) hit 1.49 million for the week ending February 21. 

While this reportedly represents a 3% weekly decline, the firm attributes the dip to normal fluctuations rather than a meaningful slowdown, as the four-week sequential growth rate remained steady at 7%, with year-over-year growth increasing to 63% from 60% in the prior report.

Novo Nordisk continues to grow, but at a slower pace than Lilly, according to Bernstein.

“Interestingly both LLY and NOVO are demonstrating yoy growth that aligns with volume guidance +30% of supply growth for NOVO, 1.6x supply growth for LLY,” wrote Bernstein.

 The firm’s analysts highlight that Novo’s total GLP-1 prescriptions rose 38% year-over-year, up slightly from 36% last week, but have yet to benefit from an increase in available starter doses in the U.S.

Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Eli Lilly with a $1,100 price target, citing strong momentum in GLP-1 adoption and continued market share expansion.