Lyft gains as CEO says San Francisco share losses could be overblown

Investing.com -- Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) CEO David Risher said that concerns over the company's market share losses in San Francisco may be overblown.

“SF is a growing market for rideshare. Even with Waymo on the road, our market share remains strong,” Risher said in a post on X over the weekend.

“In the SF Waymo ODD (operational design domain), @Lyft market share was 30.6% in Nov 2024 vs. 30.7% in Nov 2023, according to our validated external data source,” he added.

According to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analysts, Risher’s comments suggest that Lyft's market share in San Francisco has remained largely unchanged year-over-year, despite Waymo's rapid expansion.

Lyft management spoke at a conference last week, highlighting steady growth in the SF market and adding that “we are in all of the right conversations” and “you can expect more from us” in terms of partnerships.

These collaborations aim to leverage traditional rideshare networks for technology and operational support, which autonomous vehicle (AV) manufacturers can use to boost utilization.

During the same event, Uber (NYSE:UBER) management reported that bookings growth in San Francisco is outpacing US averages, even as Waymo expands.

Uber emphasized that AVs will play a crucial role in increasing supply over time, with rideshare penetration still reaching only 20% of potential riders. Moreover, Uber revealed plans to scale Waymo’s fleet to "hundreds of vehicles" in Austin and Atlanta, demonstrating significant scale.

"In our view, no matter the % share, all signs point to Lyft seeing solid growth in SF even as Waymo has generated 'incremental demand' in the SF market,” BofA analysts Michael McGovern and Justin Post said in the note.

"Given Uber/Lyft’s national scale and Waymo’s potential multiple year time-frame to reach the top 20 MSAs (and significant time to partner), we would be positive on traditional rideshare likely still seeing double digit bookings growth in SF."

Analysts also noted that third-party market share data comparing Waymo to Lyft in San Francisco excludes rides to and from the city as well as freeway rides, which represent a significant portion of the market, making such comparisons less comprehensive.