Wafer fab equipment market to decline in 2025 - Morgan Stanley

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley expects the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market to decline 6% year-over-year in 2025 as the industry navigates a transitional period marked by capacity digestion and uneven demand across semiconductor market.

Chinese semiconductor companies are expected to outpace Western rivals, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) projecting a 32% revenue increase for local players like CXMT, Yangtze Memory Tech, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (HK:0981), and Hua Hong.

In contrast, Western suppliers could see a 24% decline after an inventory pull-forward in 2024. The shift is expected to drive Chinese firms' market share to 25% in 2025, Morgan Stanley said.

The foundry and logic market is also under pressure, with combined capital expenditure by major players Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (BVMF:TSMC34), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), and Samsung (KS:005930) predicted to decline by 2%. Morgan Stanley raised concerns about Intel and Samsung’s foundry ambitions, keeping a cautious outlook on their long-term plans.

Brokerage prefers Chinese localization plays, upgrading Naura and AMEC to “overweight”, while downgrading Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) to “underweight” due to its exposure to weak spending areas. It maintained “equal-weight” ratings on ASML (AS:ASML), KLA, and Lasertec, citing near-term visibility for TSMC but long-term uncertainties in the leading-edge logic segment.