Why Cameco Stock Popped After Lousy Earnings

Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) stock jumped 4% through 11:50 a.m. ET Thursday despite reporting mixed earnings this morning.

Heading into the Q3 report, analysts forecast the uranium mining stock would report $535.8 million in quarterly sales -- a number Cameco beat with a stick, reporting sales of $721 million. That's the good news.

The bad news is Cameco was supposed to be very profitable on those sales, earning $0.18 per share. Instead, on an adjusted basis, Cameco lost $0.01 per share. On the plus side, Cameco's generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profit was $0.02 per share -- but earnings still declined 94%.

Cameco Q3 earnings

Why the disconnect? As CEO Tim Gitzel explained, Cameco's "quarterly earnings ... can vary significantly," but the company's rising revenue reflects "a clear underlying trend of improving operational performance and cash flow generation, backed by stable and rising market prices."

Sales surged 25% in Q3. And this is a trend investors should expect to continue. Cameco noted it's increasing uranium production from its mines by 700,000 pounds this year, to 23.1 million, and using the increased domestic production to offset less uranium bought from Kazakhstan to meet supply commitments to customers.

Logically, this should result in higher profits, as Cameco pays less money to Kazakh middlemen.

Is Cameco stock a buy?

In further demonstration of its confidence, Cameco announced plans to grow its dividend, to $0.16 initially in 2024, and to as much as $0.24 per share by 2026 -- twice the dividend paid in 2023.

Management expects "strong cash flow generation" to support these higher dividends as average uranium prices approach $77.80 per pound, growing 2024 revenue to at least $3 billion and potentially as much as $3.2 billion -- more than a 50% increase from 2023 revenue.

With analysts forecasting only $0.50 per share in profit this year, and Cameco stock costing more than $53 a share (so a P/E ratio of more than 100), it's hard to call Cameco a value stock. But it's even harder to argue with the growth story here.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Cameco. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.