Peloton double-upgraded at BofA, 'many miles more of EBITDA growth likely'

Investing.com -- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) double-upgraded Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $9, up from $3.75 in a note Monday, citing robust EBITDA growth under CEO Peter Stern, who officially starts in January.

BofA analysts see Peloton's path to profitability strengthening, driven by cost-cutting, strategic growth plans, and a promising new leadership team.

In its fiscal first quarter, Peloton delivered a stronger-than-expected EBITDA, leading management to raise its full-year guidance to $240-290 million, above the Street's $232 million forecast.

"We believe Peloton can exceed $300mn in EBITDA this year," BofA analysts stated, adding that $400 million or more is achievable over the next few years.

They see further upside from potential operating expense reductions, higher hardware margins, and subscription price increases, which could drive "double-digit EBITDA growth."

Despite Peloton's subscriber count challenges, with growth falling short of outpacing churn, BofA noted that Peloton has "above peer average monthly churn" at 1.6%.

Peloton is tackling subscriber retention through new initiatives, including a heightened focus on its treadmills, which have seen demand growth twice that of bikes, and increased marketing toward male users.

The company is also boosting its retail presence, including distribution through Costco (NASDAQ:COST) this holiday season.

BofA sees Peloton moving "from a cash burn to a debt deleverage story," citing increased free cash flow guidance of $125 million for FY25, up from $75 million, and Peloton's recent cash on hand of $722 million.

Furthermore, the bank says Peloton's enhanced financial position supports both debt reduction and future growth.

They also believe Peloton's board-appointed CEO, Peter Stern, brings relevant experience in consumer software and subscription services, aligning with Peloton's strategic goals.

BofA notes that Stern's performance-based compensation is well-aligned with Peloton's long-term objectives.