ADM Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook as Biofuels Lift Q3 Profit

Archer-Daniels-Midland raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance after third-quarter profit increased sharply, supported by stronger oilseed crushing, refined products and North American ethanol margins. The company now expects adjusted diluted earnings of $5.50 to $5.80 per share, compared with its previous outlook of $5.15 to $5.60.

ADM reported third-quarter diluted earnings of $1.70 per share, up from $0.22 a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS rose to $1.77 from $0.92, while net earnings attributable to ADM increased to $821 million from $108 million.

Revenue for the quarter ended September 30 rose to $22.34 billion from $20.37 billion. Gross profit increased by $616 million to $1.89 billion, and earnings before income taxes climbed to $997 million from $147 million. Total segment operating profit, a non-GAAP measure, increased 64% to $1.38 billion.

Biofuels and crushing drive segment gains

Ag Services and Oilseeds operating profit more than doubled to $778 million from $379 million, accounting for most of the year-over-year increase in segment earnings. Crushing profit rose by $298 million to $311 million, reflecting improved North American crush margins, strong meal demand and a 1.6% increase in global crush production. South America achieved record quarterly soybean crush volumes, although margins in the region were pressured by the delay in Brazil’s biofuel policy changes.

Refined Products and Other operating profit increased 82% to $218 million, primarily because of favorable North American biodiesel margins. ADM attributed the performance to higher domestic demand following finalization of renewable volume obligation policy, as well as higher global energy prices. The segment recorded about $35 million of net positive mark-to-market and timing effects, including $45 million of positive effects in Refined Products and Other.

Ag Services operating profit declined 9% to $172 million, reflecting weaker results in markets including Ukraine. Higher North American corn and soybean exports partly offset that pressure. ADM’s share of Wilmar operating profit increased to $77 million from $56 million.

Carbohydrate Solutions operating profit rose 40% to $470 million. Vantage Corn Processors contributed $146 million, up from $43 million, as North American ethanol margins benefited from policy incentives, increased domestic demand and strong industry-wide exports.

Starches and Sweeteners operating profit increased 11% to $324 million. Strong ethanol margins more than offset continued weakness in liquid sweetener margins and volumes. Starches remained stable, while global wheat milling volumes were unchanged in a competitive pricing environment. ADM also sequestered about 300,000 metric tons of carbon during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total close to 1 million metric tons.

Nutrition profit edges higher despite lower revenue

Nutrition revenue declined 4% to $1.84 billion, but segment operating profit increased 3% to $134 million.

Human Nutrition revenue fell 2% to $1.04 billion, largely due to pressure in wholesome ingredients. Operating profit decreased 3% to $93 million as progress in Flavors and the recovery of the Decatur East facility were more than offset by unplanned plant downtime, higher costs for certain inputs, softness in North American Biotics and the absence of approximately $10 million in insurance proceeds recorded a year earlier.

Animal Nutrition revenue decreased 6% to $795 million, reflecting portfolio actions and the formation of the Akralos joint venture. Operating profit rose 21% to $41 million, driven by operational improvements and benefits from portfolio measures taken in 2025.

Cash generation and capital allocation

Cash flow from operations before working-capital changes, a non-GAAP measure, increased to $3.01 billion for the first nine months of 2026 from $2.09 billion a year earlier, which ADM attributed to higher earnings. GAAP cash provided by operating activities was $1.8 billion after a $1.23 billion use of cash from working-capital changes.

ADM invested $773 million in capital projects during the first nine months and now expects full-year capital expenditures of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, below its previous estimate of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. The company returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including $358 million of buybacks during the third quarter.

Adjusted net debt was $7.30 billion at September 30, and the ratio of adjusted net debt to trailing-four-quarter adjusted EBITDA was 1.5 times. Trailing-four-quarter adjusted return on invested capital was 9.0%, compared with ADM’s stated long-term objective of 10%.

For the fourth quarter, management expects year-over-year operating profit improvement in all segments as it continues executing its operating priorities. ADM said it remains on track to deliver aggregate savings of $500 million to $750 million under a three-to-five-year cost program that began in 2025. Its investment plans include expanding crushing and ethanol capacity at existing facilities, building precision-fermentation capabilities and enlarging its natural-colors footprint.

The updated outlook excludes estimates for new mark-to-market and timing effects, which could affect future results. ADM also identified commodity and energy prices, biofuel and trade policies, geopolitical disruptions, weather, operational outages, input-cost inflation, cybersecurity events and execution of cost and growth initiatives among the uncertainties facing its outlook.