Greenbrier Backlog Rises as FY2027 Revenue Outlook Reaches $3.2 Billion

The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) ended fiscal 2026 with its first sequential increase in railcar backlog since fiscal 2024, as fourth-quarter orders approached deliveries and the company expanded its lease fleet. Greenbrier also projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion, reflecting its expectation for a recovery in new railcar demand toward the second half of the year and continued growth in Leasing & Fleet Management.

For the quarter ended Aug. 31, 2026, Greenbrier received orders for 3,400 railcars valued at $600 million and delivered 3,600 units, including syndicated deliveries. The resulting book-to-bill ratio of 0.9 was the company’s highest since fiscal 2024. Backlog increased to 14,000 units worth $2.1 billion from 13,800 units valued at $2.0 billion at the end of the preceding quarter.

The average sales price per unit in backlog rose to approximately $150,000 from $145,000 sequentially. Greenbrier cautioned that backlog is not necessarily indicative of future operating results and that some orders remain subject to customary documentation.

Earnings decline from prior year as core EBITDA improves sequentially

Fourth-quarter revenue was $591.0 million, compared with $759.5 million a year earlier and $576.5 million in the third quarter. Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier were $8.7 million, rounded to $9 million in the company’s summary, or $0.27 per diluted share.

Excluding facility-related rationalization costs, core net earnings attributable to Greenbrier were $12.3 million, or $0.39 per diluted share. That compared with core diluted EPS of $1.26 in the prior-year quarter and $0.60 in the preceding quarter.

Core EBITDA was $72.3 million, or about 12% of revenue, down from $114.8 million a year earlier but up from $69.1 million sequentially. Greenbrier attributed the sequential improvement to cost management and operating resilience at current production levels. Core EBITDA and core EPS are non-GAAP measures that exclude items affecting comparability.

Greenbrier also completed programmatic restoration work on approximately 2,200 railcars during fiscal 2026. Those units are excluded from reported backlog and deliveries, but the company said the work generated incremental revenue, supported manufacturing volume and improved fixed-cost absorption.

Lease fleet expands while utilization remains high

Greenbrier’s owned lease fleet reached approximately 20,900 railcars, an increase of 23% during fiscal 2026, with utilization at 98%. The fleet had a net book value of about $1.7 billion, an average remaining lease term of 2.5 years and 171 customers as of Aug. 31.

The company reported 55% growth in trailing-12-month recurring revenue compared with the $113 million starting point presented at its April 2023 investor day. Greenbrier defines recurring revenue as Leasing & Fleet Management revenue excluding syndication transactions.

Trailing-12-month operating cash flow was $40 million at the end of the quarter, down from $106 million in the third quarter and $266 million a year earlier. Greenbrier said cash flow was used for opportunistic purchases of leased railcars in the secondary market as part of its plan to expand recurring revenue.

Net funded debt was approximately $1.62 billion, including about $1.08 billion of lease-fleet and other non-recourse debt and $541 million of other recourse debt. Liquidity remained at $962 million, comprising roughly $235 million of cash and $727 million of available borrowing capacity.

Fiscal 2027 outlook

For fiscal 2027, Greenbrier expects revenue of $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion and an operating margin of 7.0% to 7.5%. The outlook assumes a recovery in new railcar demand toward the second half of the fiscal year and 12% to 15% revenue growth in Leasing & Fleet Management.

Diluted EPS is projected at $2.75 to $3.75. Management said market growth and modest margin expansion are expected to be partially offset by higher interest expense and a return to a normalized effective tax rate.

Greenbrier expects an aggregate gross margin of approximately 14% to 15%, with manufacturing margins in the low double digits and a Leasing & Fleet Management gross margin of 56% to 57%. The company forecast selling, general and administrative expense of $235 million to $245 million, net interest expense of $85 million to $95 million, an effective tax rate of 26% to 29%, and depreciation and amortization of $145 million to $150 million.

Total capital expenditures, net of equipment-sale proceeds, are expected to range from $225 million to $275 million. Approximately 70% of net capital investment is planned for lease-fleet growth. Greenbrier estimates that the North American railcar industry will deliver 26,000 to 28,000 units during the year.

The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share, marking Greenbrier’s 50th consecutive quarterly dividend. The company also had $65 million remaining under its share-repurchase authorization as of Aug. 31.

Greenbrier identified economic uncertainty, tariffs and import duties, inflation, higher interest rates and wages, supply disruptions, labor disputes, competition from other freight modes and geopolitical conflicts as factors that could cause actual results to differ from its outlook.