Has Uncertainty Peaked Over Trump’s Tariff Breaks? Analysts: Root Risks Remain

TradingKey – After repeatedly threatening broader tariff coverage and raise rates, reports that President Donald Trump may grant tariff exemptionsto numerous countries have abruptly shifted policy expectations and sparked a rally in U.S. equities. Still, analysts remain wary of Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts.

On Monday, March 24, President Donald Trump announced plans to unveil new tariffs on automobiles, lumber, and semiconductors in the coming days, while also signaling potential exemptions for many nations.

Citing government sources, recent media reports suggest that Trump is unlikely to unveil industry-specific tariffs by the original April 2 deadline. Nonetheless, the administration has indicated it still intends to proceed on schedule, leaving the plan’s timeline and scope uncertain.

All three major U.S. closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq climbing more than 2%. Tesla (TSLA.US) soared 12%, marking its best single-day performance since the day after Trump’s 2024 election victory.

Despite the market rebound, analysts caution that uncertainty remains high amid the administration’s erratic tariff approach. One analyst noted, "You don't know what's going to be implemented until it's actually implemented." 

Strategists at BNY said that investors may currently be at the “peak of uncertainty”, with clarity expected in early April—though the eventual outcome may prove less severe than initially feared.

The firm added that while markets welcome the prospect of more targeted tariff negotiations, recent contradictory messaging and the stop-start nature of execution are likely to reemerge.

Analysts at CFRA Research noted that although investors breathed a temporary sigh of relief, concerns persist over how long the calm will last. The manufactured correction—tariffs and their potential impacts on economic growth, inflation, and corporate profits—have not evaporated.