A 50bp rate cut in September remains base case scenario at Citi

Investing.com -- Citi analysts in a note dated Wednesday maintained that a 50 basis points (bp) rate cut at the upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remains their base case scenario. 

The July FOMC minutes provided the clearest indication yet that the Federal Reserve is leaning towards policy easing, with a "vast majority" of officials viewing such a move as appropriate.

The minutes confirm that many officials were inclined to cut rates even before recent softer economic data emerged. 

A "vast majority" of Fed officials indicated that, should the data continue to meet expectations, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the September meeting. 

Citi analysts noted that this sentiment existed before the release of weaker inflation and employment data, which likely strengthened the case for a rate cut.

Citi analysts flagged that "several" officials at the July meeting saw a "plausible case" for reducing the target range by 25bp at that time. 

“Several officials would have supported a cut in July, with more noting risks of a more significant labor market deterioration,” the analysts said. 

“With the unemployment rate subsequently rising from 4.1% to 4.3%, these officials’ concerns will have only grown,” they added.

The minutes also revealed that "some" officials noted increased risks of a sharper deterioration in the labor market as conditions eased. 

With the unemployment rate rising, these concerns are likely to have deepened, further supporting the case for a more significant rate cut in September.