July CPI consistent with 25bp rate cut in September rather than 50bp: strategists

The consumer price index (CPI) report for July is “consistent with a 25bp rate cut rather than 50bp,” strategists at Capitol Economics said Wednesday.

All-items CPI rose and core CPI rose 0.15% and 0.18% month-over-month, respectively, in July. This suggests “that the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted itself, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter," Capitol strategists argue.

On an annual basis, the headline CPI rose 2.9% last month, slightly down from the 3.0% rise in June. Economists had anticipated that July's figure would remain consistent with June's rate.

The core CPI, which excludes the more volatile categories such as food and energy, increased by 3.2% over the twelve months leading up to July, coming in just below the expected 3.3%.

This data follows Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected July producer price index (PPI), reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures remain moderate. This could provide the U.S. central bank with room to lower its policy rate, which has been held steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range for over a year.

Based on the latest PPI and CPI data, Capitol Economics estimates that core PCE prices likely increased by 0.17% last month. However, due to unfavorable base effects, this would push the annual core PCE inflation rate up to 2.7% from 2.6%.

They note that the one-month annualized rate would stand at 2.0%, the three-month annualized rate at 2.1%, and the six-month annualized rate would decrease to 2.7% from 3.4%.

"In short, this CPI report represents more good data and adds to the evidence supporting a 25bp September rate cut," the strategists remarked.

“Overall, July’s CPI report is probably best described as mildly encouraging – it adds support for a 25bp rate cut in September but, at the same time, doesn’t suggest price pressures are collapsing in a way that could warrant a bigger 50bp reduction.”