USD mixed as markets anticipate Fed cuts – BBH

FXStreetDec 4, 2025 10:56 AM

View all comments（0）



US Dollar (USD) remains mixed as bets on Fed rate cuts rise amid disappointing ADP payrolls and signs of easing inflation pressures. US labor market shows strain with negative job trends, even as services activity holds up, keeping focus on upcoming job cuts and claims data, BBH FX analysts report.

Job cuts and claims data in focus today

"USD is mixed near yesterday’s low. Markets bets on Fed front-loading rate cuts toward neutral levels (near 3%) to avert a sharper job slump risk gaining traction. That can further weigh on USD. ADP private-sector payrolls surprised to the downside at -32k (consensus: +10k) vs. 47k in October, and the three-month trend is concerning with an average of -13k jobs lost in September, October, and November."

"The ISM services index overshot expectation rising 0.2pts to a nine-month high at 52.6 (consensus: 52.0) in November, indicative of solid services sector activity. However, the details support the case for additional Fed funds rate cuts. Prices Paid index dropped to a seven-month low at 65.4 vs. 70.0 in October, indicating that upside risks to inflation are fading. New orders-to-inventories ratio dropped below 1, suggesting firms may need to scale back production as supply exceeds demand. The employment index improved to a 6-month high at 48.9 vs. 48.2 in October but remains in contraction territory."

"The November US Challenger job cut announcement data and weekly jobless claims are today’s highlights. For reference, Challenger job cuts totaled nearly 1.1 million in the year to October. That was the highest cumulative total since 2020, while hiring plans totaled 488k, the lowest cumulative total since 2011. Meanwhile, the jobless claims data is mixed. Initial claims are low by historical standards and suggest there is no layoff spiral underway. But continuing claims are running above levels in 2023 and 2024, reflecting a lengthening in job-finding times."

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

SpaceX IPO Makes History, But Breaks Below Offer Price a Month Later, What Should Investors Watch in the Coming Months?

TradingKey - On June 12, 2026, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) listed on the Nasdaq at $135 per share with a base fundraising size of approximately $75 billion, setting a new global IPO record.

S&P 500 Index Forecast: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Other Companies Continue Increasing AI Investment, May Support Index Surpassing 8,000 in Second Half of 2026

TradingKey - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced volatility at high levels. As of the U.S. market close on July 16, the S&P 500 index stood at 7,533.77 points, falling 0.51% on the day. Despite the short-term pullback, technical indicators suggest the medium-to-long-term bullish trend remains intact, and institutions continue to hold a positive outlook for the future of the S&P 500.

Apple Hits Record High, Market Cap Surges to $4.9 Trillion: Why Full-Year Gains Lead the Mag 7?

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of a general pullback in the AI sector, Apple (AAPL) has staged an independent rally, driven by its unique ecosystem moat and robust financial performance. After reaching an all-time high of $323.45 on July 13, the share price hit another record high of $327.5 on July 15. Its market capitalization currently stands at $4.81 trillion, making it the second-largest company in the U.S. by market value as it approaches the epic $5 trillion milestone, trailing only Nvidia (NVDA) at $5.13 trillion. In fact, Apple's year-to-date gain in 2026 has reached 16%, also leading the "Mag 7."

SpaceX Negotiates Multi-Billion Dollar Computing Power Deal With Pentagon: Stock Price Drop Does Not Change Wall Street’s Bullish Expectations

Tradingkey - The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX (SPCX) is in negotiations with the U.S. Department of Defense to sell computing power. The deal could be valued at billions of dollars, and if finalized, would mark the latest major infrastructure contract for Elon Musk’s integrated rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence conglomerate. The report noted that the partnership model for this deal is similar to previous agreements SpaceX reached with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) and AI firm Anthropic. The negotiations come as the U.S. military seeks to construct data centers within its military bases to bolster its autonomous computing capabilities.

Micron Stock Price Prediction: MU Breaks $898 Support as Memory Boom Faces Capacity Risk

Micron posted record fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion and guided for $50 billion in Q4 sales, but MU has broken below $897.80 support as investors assess capacity growth and peak memory margins.

Featured Tools