EUR: Energy shocks and Ukraine financing – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Global Strategist Michael Every highlights mounting European energy and geopolitical pressures, including disrupted Oil flows via Druzhba and potential EU financing for Ukraine. The €90bn EU loan is expected to fund Western and domestic weaponry, while Brussels considers joint gas buying and faces airline fuel constraints. These dynamics underscore persistent risks for Euro-area growth and the Euro’s macro backdrop rather than immediate FX direction.

Ukraine support and energy risks weigh

"Things are also fluid --but not flowing-- on other geopolitical fronts. Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again – as Russia halted Kazakhstan's oil flows to Germany via it, worsening its energy crisis."

"The €90bn EU loan to Ukraine may now proceed, with Kyiv expected to spend the bulk of it on US Patriots, UK Storm Shadows and its own drones – which will be used to hit Russian oil refineries based on the recent heuristic. Yet Ukraine is reportedly proposing naming part of the disputed Donbas region to ‘Donnyland’ in Trump’s honour, not Von der Leyen-land."

"Meanwhile, as the Middle East and Russian energy complexes are mired in war, a key trader warns of a looming global food shock due to a squeeze on fertilisers; the EU is looking to revive joint gas buying as energy fears mount, which critics say will make little difference; Brussels said we should keep flying despite a looming fuel shortage as “Fears of widespread cancellations are overblown” – as Lufthansa axed 20,000 ‘unprofitable’ flights to save jet fuel; and EU lawmakers urged the Parliament to halt its monthly trip to Strasbourg over energy costs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)