EUR/JPY holds as Eurozone PMI weakens and Japanese inflation softens

• Eurozone business activity lost momentum with Composite and Services PMIs falling to multi-month lows.
• Japan’s CPI data cooled with both headline and core inflation slipping below the BoJ’s 2% target.
• Diverging signals from the Eurozone economy and Japan’s inflation outlook keep EUR/JPY trading in a neutral range.

The EUR/JPY cross is trading in a neutral zone near 184.00 after the Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data indicated a significant loss of economic momentum in the region.

The Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 50.5 from 51.9, marking a 10-month low, while the Services PMI fell to 50.1 from 51.9. However, Manufacturing provided some support, with the PMI increasing to 51.4 from 50.8, reaching its highest level in nearly four years.

On another note, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% YoY in February, easing from 1.5% previously, while core inflation excluding fresh food slowed to 1.6% from 2.0%, slipping below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.

The CPI data could complicate the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalization path ahead as policymakers emphasized their commitment to increasing rates if the economy and prices develop as expected. They also noted that their policy will aim to achieve the 2% inflation target in a stable and sustainable way.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY trades at 184.07. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above layered support and stays above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which edge higher and cluster around the mid-183.00s. The RSI at 59 leans to the upside without reaching overbought territory, reinforcing steady buying pressure rather than a momentum spike.

Immediate support is seen at 184.06, where recent price holds above the upper horizontal floor, followed by 183.82 and then 183.67, which align with the rising SMAs and underpin the bullish tone while intact. On the upside, continuation above the current area would open the way to fresh resistance levels beyond 184.10, with the bullish bias intact as long as the cross trades above the 183.67 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)