USD/JPY dips as BOJ hike odds rise – BBH

FXStreetOct 29, 2025 10:51 AM

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USD/JPY slipped below 152.00 as traders doubled the odds of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to 20% after US Treasury Secretary Bessent backed Japan’s policy autonomy. Markets now expect the BOJ to either resume tightening or deliver a hawkish hold — both scenarios supportive for JPY, BBH FX analysts report.

Bessent signals support for BOJ policy flexibility

"USD/JPY briefly dipped below 152.00, with swaps market doubling odds of a BOJ rate hike tomorrow to 20% following comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent."

"Bessent argued that Japanese government’s 'willingness to allow the Bank of Japan policy space will be key to anchoring inflation expectations and avoiding excess exchange rate volatility'. We anticipate the BOJ to resume raising rates this week or at the very least deliver a hawkish hold which can further lift the beleaguered JPY."

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