JPY outperforming on reassertion of haven role amid US shutdown – Scotiabank

FXStreetOct 1, 2025 11:38 AM

View all comments（0）



The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strong, up 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and once again outperforming all of the G10 currencies on a combination of both sentiment and fundamentals as market participants eye the US government shutdown as well as the outlook for the BoJ, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

BoJ adds to support given focus on rate hikes

"The yen’s safe haven role had been diminished earlier this year as a result of trade tensions, political risks, and bond market turbulence however it looks to be reclaiming its position in an environment of renewed uncertainty."

"In terms of fundamentals, the outlook for relative central bank policy is bullish for the yen and the latest Tankan business sentiment survey (as expected) offers a green light for those looking to resume tightening."

"Near-term risk lies with speeches from Dep. Gov. Uchida on Thursday and Gov. Ueda on Friday. For USD/JPY we are bearish following the break below the 50 day MA (147.81) and look to an extension of the decline toward 142.00."

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Micron Technology (MU) Stock Forecast: AI Memory Boom Keeps Bulls Focused on $1,100 After Trendline Rebound

Micron rebounds from ascending trendline support as AI-driven HBM demand continues to reshape earnings. Can MU extend toward $1,103 after record Q3 results?

NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Forecast: DeepSeek Building Its Own Chip - Is $197 the Bottom?

Reuters says DeepSeek is building its own AI chip to cut ties with Nvidia. NVDA slipped 2% on the news but still holds $197. The chart has flipped to a long setup. 61 analysts Buy at $301 avg target.

Japan and South Korea Stocks Surge at Open: Nikkei 225 and Kospi Soar Together, SK Hynix and Kioxia Jump 8%, Samsung and SoftBank Follow

Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher and continued to rise, with the KOSPI Index and the Nikkei 225 index gaining to varying degrees. SK Hynix and Kioxia surged by approximately 8%, while Samsung Electronics and SoftBank tracked the gains.

US Stocks Close: Dow Plunges 1.09%, Nasdaq Rises Against Trend, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Gains Over 2%; Trump Announces End of US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement, Some Fed Officials See Need for Rate Hike.

TradingKey - Donald Trump publicly stated that he has no intention of resuming any agreement negotiations with Iran, dampening market trading sentiment. The three major US stock indexes diverged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average taking a hit, the Nasdaq Composite rising, blue-chip stocks declining, and memory chip stocks rebounding. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.09% to 52,348.39 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.20% to 25,870.65 points; and the S&P 500 Index fell 0.28% to 7,482.71 points.

FOMC Minutes: Fed Shifts to Neutral Wait-and-See Stance, a Few Officials See Need to Raise Rates, Upside Inflation Risks Become Core Conflict

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16-17 FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 8. The document shows that the Fed's policy has completely shifted to a neutral, wait-and-see stance, with upside risks to inflation becoming the core contradiction. This FOMC meeting sent a clear signal that the Fed has completely moved away from its previous unilateral rate-cut bias and entered a period of two-way, flexible policy observation. Higher-than-expected inflation stickiness and its broadening scope are the core reasons for this policy shift, while the resilience of employment and growth provides room for flexible policy adjustments. Officials confirmed a further rise in inflation, noting that pressures are no longer confined to exogenous factors such as energy and tariffs. Instead, price increases have spread across a wide range of categories including transportation, airfares, and oil, with service inflation excluding housing showing almost no improvement. In the short term, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and the marginal effects of tariffs fade, inflation is expected to decline gradually.

Featured Tools