Colombia: Runoff risks and market caution – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish reviews Colombian presidential election dynamics ahead of the May 31, 2026 vote, noting that polls suggest a runoff where a unified right has an advantage over the Historic Pact candidate. The note highlights Paloma Valencia’s growing support among undecided voters, lingering fragmentation risks, and elevated institutional and fiscal stress that keep markets cautious on Colombian assets.

Unified right seen with runoff edge

"Polls show runoff dynamics favour a unified right: Valencia or De la Espriella outperform Cepeda in second-round matchups, with fragmentation the key risk."

"Valencia gaining traction: Undecided voters are consolidating around her, while Cepeda appears near a ceiling."

"Odds now slightly favour Valencia, but poll credibility is clouded by a CNE [Consejo Nacional Electoral - National Electoral Council] probe."

"Institutional and fiscal stress elevated: Central bank tensions and limited fiscal space heighten market sensitivity."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)