Bitcoin leverage hits 99 percentile as Nasdaq correlation climbs

• Bitcoin's perpetual futures open interest reached 353,000 BTC, placing it in the 99th percentile of readings recorded over two years.
• K33 warned that elevated open interest could increase the risk of forced liquidations and short-seller buying, amplifying Bitcoin's price movements.
• Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq reached 0.75, placing it in the 99th percentile of readings recorded since 2020.

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a leverage level rarely seen in the past two years as the leading cryptocurrency continues to decline, according to a Tuesday report by K33.

Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest hits 99th percentile

K33’s head of research Vetle Lunde stated that notional open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures climbed to 353,000 BTC, placing it in the 99th percentile of observations over the past two years.

The increase comes as open interest has risen by 12% over the past 30 days, while Bitcoin has declined by 10% over the same period. K33 shared that open interest had only reached similarly elevated levels on 1.2% of trading days over the past two years.

“The leverage buildout likely reflects a combination of hedging activity and speculative positioning. Funding rates have trended higher on both Binance and Bybit, suggesting growing demand for long exposure as BTC tests key support levels,” K33 wrote.

However, the firm cautioned that the current positioning does not point to an overwhelmingly bullish market.

K33 noted that a further price drop could force traders to sell their long positions, adding to the pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, a recovery could push short sellers to buy back their positions, helping the price rise.

The report also stated that open interest above 350,000 BTC coincided with several major market turning points over the past 18 months, including Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, the November sell-off and its bottoming process in late June 2025.

“The historical pattern is noteworthy. Elevated open interest tends to coincide with extended price moves, often preceding reversals or periods of substantial volatility,” K33 added.

Bitcoin's Nasdaq correlation reaches four-year extreme

The derivatives buildup comes as Bitcoin's relationship with US technology stocks strengthens. K33 highlighted Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq, which reached 0.75 last Thursday, ranking in the 99th percentile of observations since 2020.

The correlation became more pronounced during last week's equity market sell-off. Nasdaq futures declined by 7.1% on Thursday, marking their steepest daily decline since March 2020, while Bitcoin fell 5.5%.

"Such elevated correlations tend to emerge during periods of pronounced risk aversion, when investors broadly reduce exposure to risky assets,” the report shared.

K33's historical analysis suggests that Bitcoin's near-term direction could depend on whether the Nasdaq sustains its recovery.

In eight of nine instances when a strong Nasdaq rebound continued, Bitcoin recorded gains, with a median return of 2.9%. When the recovery failed, Bitcoin declined in all seven cases, with a median loss of 21%.

"The near-term outlook for BTC thus appears heavily dependent on whether Nasdaq's rebound can be sustained," K33 said.

BTC is trading at $73,871, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.