Cardano Price Forecast: Derivatives and on-chain data confirm bears in control

• Cardano extends losses, trading below $0.202 on Monday after recording three straight weeks of declines.
• Weakening derivatives positioning and bearish on-chain signs support further losses.
• The technical outlook shows bears controlling momentum, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.

Cardano (ADA) extends losses, trading below $0.202 on Monday after three consecutive weeks of more than 20% declines since early October. Selling pressure continues to build as weakening derivatives metrics, bearish on-chain signals and a deteriorating technical outlook point to further downside risks.

Derivatives metrics support a bearish outlook

Derivatives data shows a bearish bias for Cardano. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA reads 0.70 on Monday, nearing the lowest level over a month. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will fall.

In addition, Cardano’s funding rate flipped negative on Monday and reads -0.0032%, indicating shorts are paying longs and suggesting a bearish outlook.

On-chain data shows a cautious outlook

CryptoQuant’s summary data shows a cautious tone. ADA’s futures markets show large whale orders alongside overheating conditions. In addition, the spot and futures markets show sell-side dominance. These highlight a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among Cardano traders.

Cardano technical outlook: Bears in control

Cardano price trades at $0.201 on Monday, extending a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $0.218 and $0.237.

The failed upward trendline break around $0.213 now acts as immediate resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at persistent downside pressure but a risk of short-lived corrective bounces. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, with the line below the signal and a flat bearish profile, reinforcing the view that rallies are likely to be capped by the overhead EMA stack.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the former trendline break near $0.213, followed by the 100-day EMA at $0.218 and the 50-day EMA at $0.224. Above these, horizontal barriers emerge at $0.236 and $0.245, with the 200-day EMA at $0.237 adding to supply in that zone, before a more distant resistance level at $0.299.

On the downside, structural support is much lower at the earlier downward trendline break around $0.081, leaving ADA exposed. At the same time, it trades in open air between current prices and that deeper technical floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)