Trump asks Pentagon for new Iran strike options with midterm elections just weeks away

Donald Trump has on Wednesday asked the Pentagon to prepare new ways for him to hit Iran before Americans vote in the November 3 midterm elections, after initially saying he would wait until after election to resume strikes.

Republicans are heading into a rough election stretch, the Iran war has become a political drag, and Trump wants something he can point to as progress before voters make up their minds. He also wants cheaper gasoline.

Trump wants options, but Washington still has no clean answer

The White House has yet to determine the scope of the operation. The United States Central Command, which is responsible for the American efforts in the war, is considering potential targets and strike packages as political leaders decide what size the attack should be and whether President Donald Trump should authorize an attack at all. The military is crafting options so the president can act swiftly once the decision is made.

But even those who are in favor of striking again recognize that there are no miracles involved here. There is no hope that it would drive the Iranian regime into negotiations. They allegedly recognize that it does not ensure unrestricted passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

And they understand that it would not lower the price of gas before the election. Rather, proponents of military strikes see a show of force as something that would boost the president.

This political value is critical in the sense that the Republican presidential candidates have been trying to dissociate themselves from the war, which is now in its eighth month. A limited attack would allow Trump to gain some kind of talking point and maybe allow the Republican party to move forward from there. The hard part will come later.

There are around 50,000 US troops stationed in the region, and they will be vulnerable if Iran retaliates. Gulf partners may also become a target for retaliation. Another attack will use up more American ammunition at a time when stocks are already strained. Wars have a tendency to expand far beyond their initial scope.

Oil, troops and Hormuz complicate the situation

There is resistance inside Trump’s own political base too. Some of his strongest supporters want the United States out of the conflict because they see the war as another source of inflation.

Energy data gives the White House little comfort. Crude prices have generally climbed when U.S. attacks restarted after pauses.

The security environment in the Strait of Hormuz is deteriorating even before a second attack by the United States. Oil tankers had their most perilous week since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, coinciding with Gulf producers’ efforts to get more barrels into the market.

From September 28 to October 5, maritime security organizations identified at least 12 attacks on oil tankers and ships transporting liquefied natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. Attacks weren’t limited to direct action alone. There were also attempts to attack, drone flights, and surveillance and radio contacts by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

According to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) headed by the U.S. Navy, the above incident trend suggests that the Iranians continue to make their presence felt in the major trade routes. Hormuz is crucial as it can have an impact on insurance, shipping costs and oil prices. This is even more relevant since Washington tries hard to make Americans believe that the energy costs will eventually fall.

At the same time, the UN shipping agency reported about nine such incidents for the period under discussion. The number is smaller, since the International Maritime Organization requires verification of cases before counting them. The last significant increase in the incident number took place back in early July, when the organization counted eight incidents.

However, Gulf exporters managed to increase crude exports beyond pre-war levels for about half of September. Maintaining that pace would not be easy. It is becoming difficult to do so due to harassment of tankers, difficulties in sailing and logistics getting increasingly complicated.

President Donald Trump has stated that general warfare might resume following the midterms. It means that any offensive ordered prior to November 3rd might be restricted only to a small scale.

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