Bittensor Price Forecast: TAO poised for double-digit losses amid Covenant AI exit

• Bittensor is down over 13% so far on Friday, testing its last line of defense at the 100-day EMA.
• Covenant AI, a subnet with over 72 billion parameters, announces its departure from the Bittensor network, citing concerns over centralized governance.
• Bittensor must sustain above its 100-day EMA at $258 to avoid risking a decline to $200.

Bittensor (TAO) trades below $300 under extreme selling pressure, losing over 13% at press time on Friday. The exit of the Covenant AI subnet, citing concerns about centralized governance, fuels Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) surrounding Bittensor. Technically, a slip in TAO token price below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $258 could prompt a decline to $200.

Covenant AI exits the Bittensor network

Sam Dare, founder of Covenant AI, a 72-billion-parameter AI network built on the Bittensor network, has accused Bittensor co-founder Jacob Steeves of running a "decentralization theatre." 

Covenant has accused Steeves of suspending emissions, removing their moderation capabilities from Covenant’s community channels, depreciating subnet infrastructure, and applying direct economic pressure through large, visible token sales timed to moments of operational conflict.

In response, Steeve has clarified that the sale was from personal holdings of alpha tokens from non-running subnets and was temporarily limited on Discord after deletion. 

Taken together, the blame of centralization in a claimed decentralized AI network, driven by the exit of a large player, has fueled FUD surrounding Bittensor.

Technical outlook: Will Bittensor drop to $200?

Bittensor holds a bearish near-term bias as intraday losses push the AI token below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Meanwhile, the 100-day EMA at $258, just beneath the price, offers tentative dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below the midline to 41, signaling increasing bearish momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, with red histogram bars expanding and reinforcing the notion of a corrective phase.

A decisive daily close below the 100-day EMA at $258 could expose deeper retracements to the $206 support level, near the $200 psychological level.

On the contrary, a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $272 would signal a lessening of downside pressure. However, TAO must reclaim $300 to reopen the path toward previous swing highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)