Brent: Geopolitics and cracks drive Q3 surge – Rabobank

FXStreetSep 30, 2026 8:13 AM

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Rabobank highlights a sharp Q3 rally in Brent Oil, rising from $73 to $104, with the 3-2-1 crack spread jumping from $17 to $62. The effective move from $90 to $166 underscores tightening energy markets.

Oil rally and crack spread jump

"Brent oil is $104 right now, well up over a Q3 it started at $73 while the 3-2-1 crack spread is $62 vs. $17, which is what matters more, so we moved from an effective total of $90 to $166."

"The FT today notes that oil prices and US Treasury yields are in tightest relationship since 1990 – you mean during the late Cold War, when it was all about geopolitics at core? What a surprise!"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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