IEA envisages significantly later peak in Oil demand – Commerzbank

The International Energy Agency published its annual World Energy Outlook this week, with forecasts up to 2050, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC expects Oil demand to rise until 2050

"The most significant change was the departure from the previous forecast that Oil demand would peak at the end of the current decade. In its Current Policies Scenario (CPS), the IEA now expects Oil demand to rise until 2050 and to be 13% higher than last year at the end of the forecast period. The main reason for this is the slower transition to electric mobility."

"The IEA expects demand to peak in 2030 in its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which involves more far-reaching policy measures. With this adjustment, the IEA is moving closer to OPEC's forecast, which also expects Oil demand to rise until 2050 in its World Oil Outlook."

"However, at the end of the forecast horizon, OPEC's demand forecast is still around 10 million barrels per day higher than that of the IEA."