Oil: Tanker rates ease – ING

Oil prices saw their first weekly decline of the year with ICE Brent settling a little more than 2.8% lower last week. And this downward pressure has continued in early morning trading today. The tariff story has become an increasing concern for the market. This is particularly the case after the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Colombia, which is set to increase to 50% in a week after Colombia refused entry to two US military planes attempting to deport illegal immigrants, ING's commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Sanctions don't influence Russian oil exports much

"The Colombian government has retaliated with the president ordering similar tariffs of 25%. Colombia is the fourth largest supplier of crude oil to the US, exporting a little more than 200k b/d. Colombia’s key export grades are heavier crudes, and so refiners in the US Gulf Coast will either have to find alternatives or face higher costs. The USD strength following this escalation will also be providing headwinds to oil and the broader commodities complex."

"Putting further pressure on oil are signs that maybe the latest US sanctions are not having a significant impact on Russian oil exports. Tanker rates appear to be coming off from their recent highs following the announcement of sanctions against Russia, suggesting that Russian oil is still flowing through the use of Russia’s shadow tanker fleet, despite a large share of this fleet being sanctioned."

"The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 8,533 lots over the last reporting week to 262,865 lots as of last Tuesday. While for NYMEX WTI, speculators increased their net long by 20,195 lots to 250,887 lots as of last Tuesday – the largest position speculators have held since July."