Gold is waiting for the US jobs report – Commerzbank

Gold prices eased slightly at the start of the week and are currently trading around $2500 an ounce. Gold is still on hold ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Gold may fall further

“If the report comes in as expected by most analysts according to the Bloomberg survey, Gold could fall further. The futures market is still pricing in a roughly 30% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September.”

“However, if the report shows, as expected, that the labor market continues to cool but not collapse, this probability should be priced out. On the other hand, if the US jobs report is significantly weaker, speculation about a US recession and faster rate cuts will resurface, further supporting Gold. One day after the US employment report, China will also release data on its foreign exchange reserves.”

“As it has been reported several times in recent months that the Chinese central bank has stopped importing Gold, an increase in Gold reserves would be a surprise that would also support the price of Gold. However, this is unlikely to happen.”