Gold: Positioning risks skewed to the downside – TDS

Jul 22, 2024 3:26 PM

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A reversal of the Trump trade threatens Gold bugs, TDS senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Window for downside open in the Yellow Metal

“Recall, our gauge of discretionary trader positioning in Gold remains bloated relative to rates market expectations, with signs that the Trump trade has contributed to some froth above and beyond what is consistent with expectations of Fed cuts alone.

“Positioning risks are now asymmetrically skewed to the downside in the Yellow Metal, with Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) effectively sitting on a 'max long' position that remains vulnerable to a break south of $2380/oz, whereas even a modest reversal of the Trump trade could catalyze additional selling activity.”

“With Asia on a buyer's strike, as highlighted by the plummeting SGE premium alongside notable long liquidations on Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), a liquidity vacuum could ensue with fewer buyers to offset potential liquidations from a potential reversal of the Trump trade compounded by CTA selling activity in a downtape. The window for downside is open in the Yellow Metal.”

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