US crude stockpiles expected to rise - Macquarie

Investing.com - US crude inventories and product builds are expected to increase for the week ending June 21, according to a note from strategists at Macquarie.

Macquarie predicts a rise of 5.3 million barrels (MM BBL), compared to a draw of 2.5 MM BBL for the week ending June 14. This indicates that the total US crude balance may be looser than initially expected.

Macquarie's model suggests a minor decrease in crude runs from refineries following last week's soft figures. As for net imports, a significant increase is anticipated, largely attributed to a sharp drop in exports (-1.0 million barrels per day or MBD) and nearly flat imports. The strategists pointed out that weather-related port disruptions and cargo timing could introduce volatility into this week's crude balance.

Regarding domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, a moderate nominal increase of 0.2 MBD is expected for the week. Additionally, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory is forecasted to see a larger increase of 1.3 MM BBL.

Focusing on Cushing, Macquarie's refinery and pipeline model predicts a draw of 0.7 MM BBL. In terms of products, the strategists anticipate a draw in gasoline of 1.3 MM BBL, while distillate and jet fuel are expected to see builds of 1.4 MM BBL and 1.5 MM BBL respectively.

The implied demand for these three products is modeled at 14.4 MBD for the week ending June.