US500 Analysis

TradingKey - Over the past five months, the S&P 500 experienced multiple rounds of notable volatility, only to end up virtually back where it started. The index closed at 7,580.07 on October 30, compared with 7,580.06 on May 29, a difference of just 0.01 points. On the surface, the broader U.S. equity market appears to have stalled, but internal valuations, capital flows, and the underlying structure of the gains have undergone significant changes.

TradingKey - The current US bull market has marked its fourth anniversary. Since the S&P 500 Index fell to a low of 3,577 on October 12, 2022, the index has gained approximately 118% cumulatively. As the bull market enters its fifth year, with US Treasury yields approaching multi-decade highs and inflationary pressures persisting, the market is beginning to reassess the remaining upside potential for US equities.

TradingKey - At 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to The Wall Street Journal, the rate-hike probability implied by interest rate futures rose to 95% on September 14, up from 87% on the previous trading day.