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US 10-year yield crosses 5% rubicon as Fed hike looks locked
The US 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023, rising by over 4 basis points as investors had almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on September 16. At the time of writing, the US 10-year is at 5.006%
Mon, Sep 14
Euro tumbles to one-month low as Fed rate hike bets dominate
EUR/USD trades under pressure on Monday, with the Euro (EUR) losing around 0.55% against the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback strengthens across the board as traders position for a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike at the September 15-16 monetary policy meeting.
Mon, Sep 14
Canada: Contained inflation pressures support steady BoC – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation stayed at 3% year-over-year in August, with Food and energy components still elevated but easing somewhat.
Mon, Sep 14
Federal Reserve: One-off September hike view – ING
ING economists James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey and Chris Turner now expect a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Mon, Sep 14
British Pound: BoE risks in focus – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is softer against the Dollar but still outperforming most G10 currencies in a risk-off environment. Markets expect a hawkish hold from the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, with a possible 25 bp hike in November.
Mon, Sep 14
British Pound loses ground as markets brace for Fed, BoE monetary decisions
GBP/USD extends its decline on Monday and trades around 1.3470 at the time of writing, down 0.38% on the day. The pair falls to the lower end of its monthly range, weighed down by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) ahead of several major monetary policy decisions.
Mon, Sep 14
Brent: Covert tanker flows may ease supply pressure - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX Research team, including Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao, highlight that Brent crude has surged on Strait of Hormuz hostilities but see scope for gradual de-escalation in coming months.
Mon, Sep 14
Euro: ECB credibility may offer support against Dollar – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro has a subtle advantage over the Dollar this week, as the European Central Bank’s recent hikes and focus on inflation underscore its institutional credibility.
Mon, Sep 14
Gold: CTA liquidation and dip-buying narrative – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) have turned large sellers of Gold, liquidating nearly half of their net-long exposure as markets price a Federal Reserve hike and higher energy costs.
Mon, Sep 14
Canadian Dollar remains under pressure following mixed inflation data
USD/CAD edges higher for the fourth consecutive day as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from rising Oil prices. Traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation figures.
Mon, Sep 14
Sweden: Election uncertainty and fiscal stance – Nomura
Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that Sweden’s 13 September election remains too close to call, with the centre-left only narrowly ahead.
Mon, Sep 14
Federal Reserve: Inflation keeps pressure on – Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists note that August US CPI data were broadly in line with expectations but still too high for the Federal Reserve. They stress excessive underlying price pressure and say the Fed has already signaled readiness to hike.
Mon, Sep 14
Oil: Geopolitical supply risks tilt bias higher – OCBC
OCBC strategist Christopher Wong says oil risks have risen again as disruptions to Saudi export infrastructure and renewed concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb keep supply risks elevated.
Mon, Sep 14
Silver Price Forecast: Head-and-shoulders neckline comes under pressure
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure at the start of the week, with both the fundamental and technical backdrop pointing to further downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $63, down roughly 2.40% on the day.
Mon, Sep 14
New Zealand Dollar extends losses as US Dollar strengthens on Fed bets
NZD/USD extends its decline on Monday, trading around 0.5770 at the time of writing, down 0.72% on the day.
Mon, Sep 14
Japanese Yen: Policy-regime shift backs JPY against US Dollar – DBS
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research highlights a growing policy-regime change advantage for the Japanese Yen (JPY) versus the US Dollar (USD). Following joint US-Japan intervention and expectations of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, speculators have unwound short JPY positions.
Mon, Sep 14
British Pound: BoE hold, slower QT and dovish repricing risk – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% with a likely 6–3 vote, as easing United Kingdom (UK) wage and services inflation allow a pause.
Mon, Sep 14
Japanese Yen trims gains with Fed and BoJ decisions looming
The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds moderate losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, but remains close to seven-month highs, following a 4% rally in the previous two weeks.
Mon, Sep 14
Indian Rupee likely extends previous week’s downfall on Tuesday
The Indian Rupee is expected to extend its previous week’s plunge against the US Dollar (USD) after a long weekend on Tuesday. Indian financial markets across equity, commodity and currency remains closed on Monday due to Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations.
Mon, Sep 14
Czech Koruna: Dovish CNB may weaken CZK against Euro - ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky outlines a busy Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) data calendar but stresses that the Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting is the key event. He expects rates to stay at 3.75% with dovish guidance, contrasting with still-hawkish market pricing.
Mon, Sep 14
