FOMC to leave rates unchanged this week; may lay groundwork for September cut

Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday but are anticipated to signal that the first 25 basis point (bps) rate cut could come at the next meeting in September.

However, Evercore ISI strategists believe the Fed will stop short of explicitly pre-signaling a rate reduction at that September meeting.

“The Fed leadership is proceeding methodically to build the case for a cut and internal consensus as to the gameplan for subsequent moves,” they wrote.

“We believe Powell will wait until Jackson Hole end August – by which time the Fed will have another month’s data – to deliver the explicit September cut signal,” strategists added.

The debate leading up to the July meeting revolves around how forward-leaning the FOMC is willing to be and how firmly it supports Powell’s view that the balance of risks to inflation and employment is shifting in favor of cutting rates soon to ensure a soft landing.

According to Evercore, key elements to watch for in the statement include an upgrade in the language on inflation progress, an assessment that labor data has moderated, increased emphasis on the balance of risks.

Moreover, strategists said there could also be a potential change to the third paragraph of FOMC’s recent statement, which indicates that the Committee does not expect to cut rates until it has greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%.

"We could see anything from no change to that third paragraph language – a bit hawkish though we would not overdo it – to a surprisingly explicit signal the Committee is preparing to cut at the next meeting – clearly dovish."

Economists at Citi voiced similar remarks, stating that the most likely approach for Fed officials is to use the July meeting to build consensus and signal an upcoming rate cut. Provided there is no significant upside surprise in inflation, officials are expected to deliver the nearly fully-priced 25 basis point rate cut in September.

A quicker increase in the unemployment rate, for instance, reaching 4.3% or higher by August, could lead the Fed to signal continued cuts in November or even consider a 50 basis point rate cut, economists noted.

"A deepening and broadening of the sell-off in equity markets could also become a significant enough tightening of financial conditions to provoke a more dovish policy path," they said in a note.

“Given upside risks to unemployment we see asymmetric risk to a more dovish policy path. In our base case the Fed cuts rates 25bp in September and then at each subsequent policy meeting until reaching a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%.”

Separately, while also expecting the first 25 basis point rate cut in September, Macquarie economists forecast a total of 75 basis points in cuts, bringing the Fed funds rate to 4.5-4.75% by early 2025. An unexpected labor market weakening could prompt a more aggressive easing cycle than anticipated, they pointed out.