Why this global economic research firm thinks Harris will lose US election

Vice President Kamala Harris quickly emerged as the standout front-runner to replace President Joe Biden after his withdrawal and endorsement, securing significant support from senior party officials and donors. The new nominee will be chosen at or before the Democratic National Convention on August 19-22.

Harris has several advantages over Biden: she is healthy, younger than former President Donald Trump, and has held a number of state and federal elected positions.

“As the first African American woman Vice President, she garners significant goodwill from the Democratic base,” strategists at Alpine Macro said in a recent commentary.

But despite these advantages, strategists believe Harris will lose the upcoming election.

Although she may poll better than Biden against Trump and her favorability is likely to increase with positive media coverage, "she remains a long shot, just as likely to lose as Biden,” Alpine said in a note.

“This does not mean a landslide for Trump, given how partisan and polarized U.S. voters are, but he will remain the overwhelming favorite."

Alpine strategists outlined three main reasons why they believe so.

First, Democrats face a "truth deficit" with voters due to covering up Biden’s deteriorating mental condition, which could lead to penalization, especially for Harris. She represents policy continuity with an unpopular incumbent, impacting her election prospects whether Biden remains President or resigns.

Second, Harris is positioned well to the left of Biden, making it difficult for her to appeal to moderate voters. Her stances on healthcare, criminal justice, and immigration are unpopular beyond the Democratic base.

"Even with a likely more centrist/moderate running mate, her left-wing image will persist, and Republicans will attack it relentlessly,” strategists pointed out.

Third, Harris is perceived as lacking charisma and competence, even within her own party. Her past electoral performance has been underwhelming, and she has been seen as ineffective as Vice President, leading to calls for her replacement.