Inflation insight likely holds key in Fed June minutes: Morgan Stanley

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are usually dubbed a 'nothing burger' event by many as it excludes the most up to date economic data because its release comes weeks after a policy decision, but the June minutes could garner more attention if it offers insight into what convinced Fed members that the progress on curbing inflation remains intact.  

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee showed slated for Wednesday will have an "impact if they shine more light on, first, what convinced FOMC members that progress on inflation has restarted; and, second, to what extent FOMC members are considering the policy tradeoffs between inflation and growth, " Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said in recent note.

At the June meeting, Fed voting members backed a decision to leave rates unchanged and in a hawkish surprise somewhat also cut their forecast for how many rate cuts were expected this year from three to just one cut. The move to predict fewer cuts for the year coincided with a fresh set of economic projects pointing to inflation staying higher for longer. 

But on the second-day of the Fed meeting, consumer price index, or CPI, data for May showed that price pressures had cooled more than expected, sparking hope that the deflationary trend was back on track -- following upside surprise in the first quarter of the year -- and prompting some Fed members to change their forecast. 

Further insight into how the CPI data may have altered discussions about the inflation outlook at the Fed meeting table, "could give a better sense of the Fed's reaction function," Morgan Stanley said, adding that clues on whether the Fed has started take a closer lens at economic growth may also be useful to determine whether the central bank may tolerate higher inflation. 

In the weeks that passed since the Fed's Jun. 11-12 Fed meeting, investors have digested a slew of economic data flagging a weaker a consumer as retail sales for May was weaker than expected, while the Fed's preferred inflation, the core PCE index, cooled to a pace of 2.6% from 2.8%, snapping a four-month streak of stagnant price pressures. 

While the data helped boost bets on the September rate cut, Morgan Stanley said it believes the "cutting cycle will be shallow," adding that investors hoping for cuts of "several hundred basis points may be in for some disappointment."