Who won? Analysts react to the first Biden-Trump debate

US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump on Thursday faced off in their first presidential debate, marked by heated exchanges, personal insults, and a range of contentious issues.

The two candidates, the oldest in presidential history, sparred over key topics such as abortion, immigration, the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, their economic policies, and even their golf games. Both aimed to leave a significant impact in a race that has remained closely contested in the polls for months.

Among the key takeaways on social media and cable news was President Biden's halting performance, which has left Democrats deeply worried about the 81-year-old candidate’s prospects in the race.

Strategists from both parties questioned whether Biden could continue in the race against Trump, with just a few Democrats offering a positive assessment of the president's performance.

Analysts weigh in

Commenting on the debate, analysts were also not impressed with President Biden’s performance.

“If a goal of an early debate for Biden’s team was to show President Biden was ready to take on former President Trump and put to rest some concerns he was up for the task; the goal was not met, in our view,” Raymond James analysts said in a note.

“Focus on whether Biden will stay in the race will heighten to likely the loudest level thus far in the campaign,” they added.

Biden has secured enough votes to be the nominee, and it would likely take a decision from him to step aside for another candidate to run against Trump. Democrats plan to hold a virtual nomination by August 7 to meet Ohio's ballot requirements.

Similarly, Wolfe Research analysts said President Biden “turned in a brutal performance in a high-leverage moment.”

“The question for him coming in was whether he could allay concerns about his age. Instead, he exacerbated them,” they added.

However, Wolfe’s team highlighted that Trump “was not good” either, though they believe he started strong and with a reasonable tone.

Analysts said Trump’s responses on issues like Roe v. Wade and January 6 would typically be considered significant missteps in a normal debate.

But those missteps were overshadowed by Biden’s performance that was “clearly worse,” Wolfe analysts wrote, especially early on.

“Both the affect and the substance of his early answers were undeniably bad. He improved somewhat as the night went on, but only to a point, and the damage was done very early,” they continued.

If Biden steps aside, the nominee will be decided at the Democratic National Convention from August 19-22. Wolfe Research analysts see two main possibilities: an effort to transition smoothly to Vice President Kamala Harris before the convention or an unstructured floor fight.

While several governors are considered promising candidates, Harris is viewed as the most likely replacement.

As they await further polling and decisions from the Biden campaign, Wolfe analysts provisionally adjust Trump’s odds to 60-40, accounting for the potential change in the Democratic ticket.