Brazilian Real: Narrowing polls support BRL against US Dollar– ING

FXStreetSep 9, 2026 1:51 PM

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ING’s Chris Turner notes USD/BRL is drifting towards 5.05/5.07 as election polls show challenger Flavio Bolsonaro overtaking President Lula in a run-off, with prediction markets still favoring Lula but by a shrinking margin. ING highlights Brazil’s high real interest rates and expects the real to outperform the steep forward curve, with potential nominal appreciation if polls move further toward Bolsonaro.

Election dynamics and carry back Brazilian real

"USD/BRL is drifting towards the lower end of its two-month range at 5.05/5.07, helped by the latest opinion polls for October's presidential election."

"For the first time yesterday, a poll put challenger Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula in a second-round run-off. Polymarket still shows President Lula's chances of winning as some 7% ahead of Bolsonaro, but the gap is closing fast."

"Clearly, the benign global investment environment is also helping the real, which is backed by one of the highest real interest rates in the world."

"Those overweight the Brazilian real will be hoping for some kind of Colombian peso-style advance should Bolsonaro be successful and bring in some fiscal consolidation and deregulation."

"At the very least, we look for the real to continue outperforming the steep forward curve, if not deliver nominal appreciation should the polls shift even further to Bolsonaro."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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