USD/CAD: Canada jobs data in focus – ING

FXStreetNov 7, 2025 10:22 AM

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Markets eye Canadian jobs data, with a modest October decline expected, while soft Chinese trade figures weigh on commodity currencies and USD/CAD upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Weak Canadian jobs might push USD/CAD toward 1.4150–1.4200

"Where there is jobs data today is in Canada. Consensus is expecting a 5k drop in October after a big 60k increase the previous month. Any downside miss could firm up pricing of another Bank of Canada rate cut and send USD/CAD to the 1.4150/4200 area, which could prove major medium-term resistance."

"Commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar may also have a soft undertone today after the Chinese October trade data disappointed overnight. Exports fell 1.1% year-on-year and imports barely grew at 1%."

"That's not good news for those dependent on industrial demand in China and also a worrying sign for global trade, in that export-dependent economies might not have been able to shake off US tariffs as much as first hoped."

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