USD/JPY: BoJ disappoints, MoF soothes – OCBC

USD/JPY jumped, postBoJ’s decision to keep policy rate on hold. 2 members dissented against the decision – unchanged from previous meeting. USD/JPY last seen at 154.20 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum turned mild bullish

"Governor Ueda also gave little hint on timeline, saying that they want to see more data on domestic wage-setting behaviours while uncertainty remains high in overseas economies. He added that 'If we’re convinced, we’ll adjust rates regardless of the political situation'. We have long argued that macro conditions are ripe for policy normalisation to take place."

"Data this morning – Tokyo CPI picking up pace in Oct –reinforced our bias. Given the sharp move over the last 24 hours, Finance Minister Katayama now said the government will be monitoring currency movements, including those driven by speculative moves, with a high sense of urgency. She added that she’s seeing very one-sided, rapid currency moves."

"Daily momentum turned mild bullish while rise in RSI moderated. Resistance at 154.40 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 153.30 (previous double-top), 151.60/80 (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo). Delayed BoJ hike may continue to pose downward pressure on JPY as verbal intervention may only slow the decline at times but cannot change the broader market forces."