JPY: A potential Trump-Takaichi meeting? – ING

It has been suggested that President Trump could be meeting Japan's new PM, Sanae Takaichi, during his Asia trip, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Diverging US-Japan policies keep USD/JPY elevated

"What to do about USD/JPY? The White House would like it lower to correct the US trade deficit with Japan, while Takaichi's presumed policies are yen negative, with pressure on the Bank of Japan not to raise rates. On that subject, there's a BoJ rate meeting on Thursday, and the market now attaches only a 10% probability of a hike."

"We can't see what's going to turn USD/JPY lower in the short term – until we get a broad dollar decline. However, we suspect Japanese policymakers would want to intervene and sell dollars were it to make it to the 155-160 area. For reference, the Japanese last sold USD/JPY near 160 in July 2024."