USD/JPY: Odds of reaching 150.90 – UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) could rise further to 150.15, with lesser odds of reaching 150.90, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Below 148.50, USD might stop rising further

24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated last Friday that 'further USD strength is not ruled out.' However, we pointed out that 'with negative divergence forming, combined with deeply overbought conditions, suggests that, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 149.20/150.15.' USD then traded between 149.38 and 149.95 before closing at 149.49 (-0.20%). The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. This time around, the softer underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a lower range of 149.00/149.75."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (25 Sep, spot at 148.65), we highlighted that 'while the renewed upward momentum suggests USD could reach 149.15, it is currently unclear whether it could continue to rise toward the next major resistance at 149.55.' After USD subsequently soared above 149.15, we highlighted on Friday (26 Sep, spot at 149.65) that 'the sharp rally over the past couple of days appears excessive, but with no sign of slowing just yet, USD could rise further to 150.15, with lesser odds of reaching the major resistance at 150.90.' We continue to hold the same view for now. On the downside, if USD breaks below 148.50 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further."