EUR: Room to recover, barring geopolitical risks – ING

FXStreetSep 26, 2025 9:33 AM

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The short-term fair value for EUR/USD is at 1.180 after the moves in rate differentials this week, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Markets take rising geopolitical tension in Europe more seriously

"The two-year swap rate gap has now rewidened in favour of USD by almost 15bp since 11 September, but at 120bp remains some 40bp narrower than two months ago."

"Our baseline view is for the dollar to give back some gains, and we think a return above 1.170 can happen as early as today. One risk, aside from any more US data strength, is that markets take rising geopolitical tension in Europe more seriously. NATO said yesterday that it is ready to shoot down any Russian planes violating its airspace."

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