XRP drops 60% as FUD spikes, analysts signal potential rebound

XRP has dropped around 60%, and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) is at an all-time high. The asset has declined to $1.35 from $3.66 it achieved in July.

According to Santiment, FUD on XRP is now at its third-highest point in the past two years. However, the platform’s analysts asserted that, in general, increased bearish sentiment tends to improve the odds of a relief rally.

It detailed, “Prices move in the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations. With retail finally turning their backs on XRP after a -63% price drop over the past 9 months, this kind of signal can help you capitalize on their bearishness if you’re willing to be patient a bit longer.”

Nonetheless, some believe the drop hints at an upcoming, much cleaner and stronger rally.

Investors split as extreme fear collides with an accumulation signal

Lucky Luciano, a longtime Bitcoin adopter, is one of the investors who have been anticipating that heavy bearish sentiment tends to precede reversals. On X, he wrote, “When everyone turns bearish, the bottom is usually close. XRP down -60%. FUD at peak. Patience pays.” His view aligns with data from the on-chain analytics platform Santiment, which reported that negative sentiment toward XRP has climbed significantly.

However, some other X users asserted that this could be XRP’s shakeout phase, and the asset could plunge even further. Overall, XRP sentiment shows a clear progression, with positive expectations holding steady from mid to late 2024.

At the time, online discussions spiked, signaling a strong FOMO phase, as the market traded at high prices and held unusually high expectations. However, that optimism faded quickly, and sentiment turned negative by early 2025.

The price fell through its last line of defense in February, and things went from bad to worse; by October, the negativity had come full circle. Market conditions remained bearish in early 2026.

Still, as XRP has slipped, Santiment’s on-chain data has shown a significant resurgence in retail usage. The total number of wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 XRP has grown to a record 1.1 million, up by more than 77,000 since October 2025. This growth has been matched by steady accumulation; this subset of wallets has added over 500 million XRP during the downturns.

XRP open interest declined to $2.38 billion, down from $10.94 billion in July 2025

Meanwhile, retail participation in XRP futures is cooling off, with open interest dropping to $2.38 billion. The current levels are a sharp contrast to the July 2025 peak of $10.94 billion during the price surge to $3.66.

The steady decline in open interest also points to a cautious sentiment, with traders unwilling to add new XRP exposure. The repeated rejection at key resistance near $1.74 also indicates that the current rallies remain corrective within the larger downtrend.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 43 on the daily chart, showing weak buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line remain slightly below neutral with a small positive histogram.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse anticipates that XRP will surpass Ethereum to become the second-largest crypto asset, a view some have supported despite the ongoing downturn.

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