Fxstreet
Sep 23, 2024 11:40 AM
The US Dollar (USD) strengthens on Monday and trades above 101.00 after the preliminary S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data portrayed a very sketchy picture for France, Germany, and the broader Eurozone. The nosedive in activity means issues ahead and shifts the negative focus now towards Europe. The Greenback is seeing a flight to safety, away from the Euro, which is bleeding on all fronts.
On the economic data front, traders will be able to compare the PMIs from Europe with the ones out of the US. The S&P Global PMIs for the United States (US) will be released ahead of the US trading session, with the Services component as the most important one. With nearly all PMI indicators in Europe in contraction, it rather looks like Europe is heading into a recession, while the US is still enjoying resilient activity.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) seemed incapable of making a move higher last week when the Fed pulled the trigger on that 50 basis point rate cut. The Greenback could be the comeback kid this week, with the PMI releases on Monday probably painting a whole other picture for traders to consider. The European performance might be far bleaker than the US one, which means that the US Dollar deserves an upgrade (appreciation) to where it was trading last week.
The upper level of the September range remains at 101.90. Further up, the index could go to 103.18, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.59 along the way. The next tranche up is very misty, with the 100-day SMA at 103.71 and the 200-day SMA at 103.78, just ahead of the big 104.00 round level.
On the downside, 100.62 (the low from December 28, 2023) is the first support, which could point to more weakness ahead. Should that take place, the low from July 14, 2023, at 99.58, will be the next level to look out for. If that level gives way, early levels from 2023 are coming in near 97.73.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.