Fxstreet
Sep 24, 2024 1:40 AM
The Australian Dollar (AUD) inches higher against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision scheduled for Tuesday. The RBA is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35%, citing strong labor market conditions and persistent inflationary pressures. Market projections suggest no rate cut before December, with some analysts predicting the first adjustment could occur as late as February or even in the second quarter of 2025.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australia Consumer Confidence Index rose by 0.8 points to 84.9 this week. Despite this increase, Consumer Confidence has now remained below the 85.0 mark for 86 consecutive weeks. On a year-over-year basis, the index is up by 8.5 points from 76.4.
The US Dollar (USD) could face challenges as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials forecast further rate cuts totaling 50 basis points (bps) in 2024, following an aggressive 50 bps cut last week. Supporting this outlook, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Monday that he expects and supports additional rate cuts in the coming year, per Reuters.
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6840 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving upward within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above 50, confirming the ongoing bullish trend.
The AUD/USD pair is currently testing the nine-month high of 0.6839, last reached on September 19. A breakout above this level could drive the pair toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel, around the 0.6910 mark.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could find support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6788. The next significant support is at the psychological level of 0.6700. A break below this level could push the pair further down toward its six-week low of 0.6622.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.04% | |
EUR | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.08% | |
GBP | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.17% | -0.10% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.00% | |
JPY | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.17% | |
CAD | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.23% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.10% | |
AUD | 0.14% | 0.18% | 0.08% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.10% | |
NZD | -0.01% | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.15% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.02% | |
CHF | 0.04% | 0.08% | -0.00% | 0.17% | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Sep 24, 2024 04:30
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 4.35%
Previous: 4.35%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia